News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • GBP turbulence persists as investors eye the next round of EU-UK Brexit negotiations. Cautious optimism signals a deal is near. Get your #currencies update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/WjU4oYpmf7 https://t.co/VcNnCjm0B2
  • An economic calendar is a resource that allows traders to learn about important economic information scheduled to be released. Stay up to date on the most important global economic data here: https://t.co/JdvW6HNuqV https://t.co/AiLoS7DrEQ
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/3Wked6GBOp https://t.co/HicBmGrokK
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:https://t.co/7kPzAoNoLG https://t.co/5lbyBJeeA7
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here: https://t.co/lAFyv1gM0P https://t.co/ubLimoYAcr
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/QQwAZTxZFg https://t.co/4cRhRCiv3C
  • The US Dollar could gain as it forms bullish technical formations against the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit. USD/PHP may have bottomed, will USD/IDR rise next? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3UIKmbLIvD https://t.co/PY2YyH4vkQ
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3wsYlSxd26 https://t.co/z2qB9p8IgX
  • A proxy of #EmergingMarket capital flows hit its lowest since July, falling with the #SP500 after some divergence This is as #USD gained against its developing FX counterparts, highlighting potential risk of a spillover outwards Stay tuned for next week's #ASEAN fundy outlook! https://t.co/kAvpnb0EXO
  • 4 consecutive down weeks for the #SP500, last matched over a year ago #Fed balance sheet continues to gain very cautiously, now at its highest since the middle of June. Still, at slower pace than last week Focus shifts to US fiscal stimulus next week in the House of Reps https://t.co/f8zpSILm86
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Difficult To Be Bearish Above 122

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Difficult To Be Bearish Above 122

2015-12-01 19:40:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

-USD/JPY Technical Strategy: USDJPY Continues to Hold Key Support at 122, Favoring Upside

-21 & 34-DMA support at 121.80 & 122.70 Underpins Price

-Environment for sideways price action before next push higher is aligning

USD/JPY continues to be encouraging albeit without excitement above 122 support. The reason that USD/JPY isn’t excited is because volatility is lacking on USDJPY and other markets. The volatility index or VIX remains near the post-August 24th lows and is off nearly 62%. When volatility and implied volatility is low, USDJPY typically moves higher or is at least supported, and that’s environment we’re in now. However, if volatlity is going to rise in such a manner as to shake USD-JPY out of the tree, this week is the week to do so given the event risk coming.As Christopher Vecchio recently pointed out, EUR/USD Prepares for its Most Important Week in Months (If Not Years!), and the events that will likely move EUR/USD could also move other G4 currencies like USD/JPY. On a larger time frame, the USDJPY positive monthly close confirms the prior basing candle and signals higher towards the August high before news of the Yuan Devaluation near 125.85.

USDJPY volatility has been very low in terms of ATR with a recent weekly average of around 150 pips. However, we continue to lean on the support of 122, which encompasses the December ’14 high, March high and the initial rebound higher after the August 24th sell-off as support. The 34-day moving average is a bit below the 122 level at 121.80, which aligns with the October high of 121.60. Shorter-term support can be found at 122.70, the 21-DMA. As long as these forms of support continue to hold up the price on a closing basis, we’ll continue to look for traction towards the August & June highs of 125.25/125.85 respectively even if the march higher is slow.

While some banks have left investors wanting in terms of additional quantitative easing, it still appears that there is more room on the road ahead of monetary divergence between the US & Japanese economy. If these two powerhouses have yet to reach an extreme monetary policy divergence, which you could make that argument that we just might be entering a new phase of divergence, we could likely see a continued push to the upside beyond the June highs. The safer approach given the lack of volatility now, and the implied volatility in the upcoming days may be a breakout above the fairly thick congestion area of resistance ranging from 123.35 to 123.71. If we’re about to head lower, which is the view of our Speculative Sentiment Index, but not my preferred view, then we should see a break of key support mentioned above as well as an increase in the VIX and other global equity markets like the SPX500.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Difficult To Be Bearish Above 122

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES