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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Digesting After Seesaw Volatility

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Digesting After Seesaw Volatility

2015-09-04 05:15:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Prices in Digestion Mode After Two Weeks of Seesaw Volatility
  • Waiting to Reassess Positioning After US Employment Report

The US Dollar is in consolidation mode against the Japanese Yen after two weeks of wild seesaw volatility as prices await further direction cues. The pair plunged to seven-month lows amid a breakout of risk aversion in the second half of August, dipping toward the 116.00 figure only to swiftly recover to within a hair of the 122.00 mark.

From here, a break below near-term support at 119.22, the September 2 low, initially exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 118.21. The first layer of resistance is at 120.69, the September 2 high. A move back above that clears the way for a challenge of the August 28 top at 121.73. This barrier is reinforced by trend line support-turned-resistance set from mid-January, now at 121.98.

An actionable trade setup is absent for now. Prices are too close to support to justify entering short from a risk/reward perspective. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bullish reversal signal suggests that taking up the long side is premature for now. Furthermore, on-coming event risk by way of the US jobs report threatens to materially alter technical positioning. With that in mind, we will stand aside for now.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Digesting After Seesaw Volatility

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