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USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Yen Aiming to Extend Gains

USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Yen Aiming to Extend Gains

2014-05-16 03:19:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Support: 101.28 (61.8% Fib exp.), 100.87 (76.4% Fib exp.)
  • Resistance:101.61-76 (50% Fib exp., channel floor), 101.94 (38.2% Fib exp.)

The US Dollar may be vulnerable to deeper losses against the Japanese Yen after prices cleared support at the bottom of a rising channel in play since early February. Sellers now aim to challenge the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 101.28, with a break below that exposing the 76.4% level at 100.87. Resistance is in the 101.61-76 area, marked by the 50% Fib and the channel floor. Reversing above that on a daily closing basis targets the 38.2% expansion at 101.94.

Given an ATR reading of 48 and the available trading range of 33 pips is too narrow to be trade-able given a strategy that uses a stop-loss activated on a daily closing basis (as ours does). Furthermore, positive RSI diverge warns of ebbing bearish momentum and argues against entering short. On balance, we will opt to remain flat.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Yen Aiming to Extend Gains

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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