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Talking Points:

  • USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Support: 101.54 (channel floor, 76.4% Fib ret.), 100.75 (Feb 4 low)
  • Resistance: 102.03 (61.8% Fib ret.), 102.43- 62 (50% Fib ret., horizontal pivot)

The US Dollar is resting at key support marked by the bottom of a rising channel that has guided the uptrend against the Japanese Yen since early February. This barrier is reinforced by the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 101.54, with a break downward initially targeting the February 4 low at 100.75. Near-term resistance is at 102.03, the 61.8% level. A reversal above that eyes the 102.43-62 area marked the 50% Fib and a horizontal pivot in play since early March.

Prices are too close to relevant support to justify a short position from a risk/reward perspective. On the other hand, the absence of a defined bullish reversal signal argues against taking up the long side. We will remain flat for now.

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dailyclassics_usd-jpy_body_Picture_10.png, USD/JPY Technical Analysis – Stalling at Channel Floor

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for