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USD/CNH Technical Analysis: Candle Pattern Warns of Top

USD/CNH Technical Analysis: Candle Pattern Warns of Top

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

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Talking Points:

  • USD/CNH Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Bearish Candlestick Pattern Hints US Dollar May Have Established Top vs. Chinese Yuan
  • Opting to Pass on Short Trade as Fed Rate Decision Threatens to Overturn Chart Setup

The US Dollar put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, hinting a move lower against the Chinese Yuan in offshore trade may be ahead. Prices found a top after rising to the highest level in four months in what newswires have linked to pre-positioning for the FOMC policy announcement.

A daily close below the 76.4% Fibonacci expansion at 6.5254 paves the way for a test of the 61.8% level at 6.5043. Alternatively, a move above the 100% Fib at 6.5596 opens the door for a challenge of the 123.6% expansion at 6.5937.

Positioning is inconclusive at this point. Technically speaking, prices are too close to near-term support to justify entering short. From a tactical perspective, a strong inverse correlation between USD/CNH and the S&P 500 warns that the pair may turn higher in the event of risk aversion following the Fed rate hike. With that in mind, we will stand aside for now.

Losing Money Trading Forex? This Might Be Why.

USD/CNH Technical Analysis: Candle Pattern Warns of Top

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