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USD/CNH Technical Analysis: Yuan Drops to 4-Month Low

USD/CNH Technical Analysis: Yuan Drops to 4-Month Low

Ilya Spivak,

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Talking Points:

  • USD/CNH Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Prices Overturn Last Week’s Bearish Technical Cues, Surge to Highest in Over 4 Months
  • Risk/Reward Considerations, Looming Event Risk Argue Against Chasing Upward Push

The US Dollar overturned bearish technical cues noted last week, surging to the highest level in over four months against the Chinese Yuan in offshore trade. Prices are now within striking distance of the late-August top that marked the beginning of the corrective pullback played out through mid-October, hinting the dominant uptrend may be reasserting itself.

A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 6.4872 opens the door for a challenge of the 61.8% level at 6.5043. Alternatively, a move back below the 38.2% Fib at 6.4702 – now recast as support – clears the way for a test of the 23.6% expansion at 6.4490.

Risk/reward considerations argue against entering long as prices over within a hair of immediate resistance. Furthermore, next week’s FOMC monetary policy announcement represents potentially game-changing event risk for the greenback and thereby USD/CNH, at least in the near term. With that in mind, we will stand aside for now and wait for better-defined opportunities ahead.

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