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USD/CHF Forecast: Price May Fall Further As Resistance Level Holds

USD/CHF Forecast: Price May Fall Further As Resistance Level Holds

Mahmoud Alkudsi, Analyst
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USD/CHF Technical Outlook

  • USD/CHF ended its sideways move
  • Bearish signals on USD vs CHF price chart

USD/CHF Price – Bears Ease up

Last week, USD/CHF hit a near four-month low at 0.9362. Ultimately, the pair recovered as some bears seemed to cover, yet the weekly candlestick closed in the red with a 0.4% loss. Alongside that, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose from 32 to 40 and reflected a weaker bearish sentiment.

In the background, safe havens rallied over fears that the coronavirus resurgence in the US may cause new restrictions and slow the economic recovery. Investors' eyes will be tomorrow on the US retails sales (June) to take a hint of how bad the recent Coronavirus developments have affected the retail sector.

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart ( Sep 20, 2018 – July 15, 2020) Zoomed Out

usdchf daily price chart 15-07-20 zoomed out
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USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (MAY 7 – July 15, 2020) Zoomed IN

usdchf daily price chart 15-07-20 zoomed in

In Mid-June, USD/CHF pulled up from a three-month slide and started a sideways move creating a lower high with a higher low. This week, the pair resumed bearish price action and declined to the current trading zone 0.9330 – 0.9438.

A close below the low end of the zone may untimely guide USDCHF’s fall towards the March 9 low at 0.9181, and a further break lower that level may encourage bears to press even lower towards 0.9037.

On the other hand, a close above the high end of the zone could open up a push behind USDCHF towards 0.9548 a high mark for a congestion back in mid-June, and a further close above that may encourage bulls to extend the rally towards 0.9640 a high mark for a congestion back in early June.

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USD/CHF Daily Four-Hour Chart (June 7 – July 15, 2020)

usdchf four hour price chart 15-07-20

In early July, USD/CHF traded below the bearish line support originated with the June 11 low at 0.9376, indicating a shift in favor of the bears’ to control which thus far held. The pair has generated today another bearish signal after breaking below the upside line support originating with the July 9 low at 0.9362.

To conclude, a break below the 0.9300 handle could send USDCHF towards 0.9266, while a break above 0.9453 may trigger a rally towards 0.9553. As such, the weekly support and resistance levels underscored on the four-hour chart should be kept in focus.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi, Market Analyst

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.