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USD/CHF Price Forecast: Downside Momentum Still in Place

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Downside Momentum Still in Place

Mahmoud Alkudsi, Analyst
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USD/CHF Price - Technical Outlook

  • Bearish signals on USD vs CHF price chart
  • USD/CHF price- bears in charge

Bear’s Pullback

On Friday, USD/CHF fell to an over nine-week low at 0.9542 however, the price reversed higher and closed the weekly candlestick with a long-legged candlestick reflecting the market’s indecision at this stage.

This week, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from 42 to 32 highlighting an accelerated bearish momentum.

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart ( JULY 11, 2018 – June 10, 2020) Zoomed Out

usdchf daily price chart 10-06-20 zoomed out
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USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (April 1 – June 10, 2020) Zoomed IN

usdchf daily price chart 10-06-20 zoomed in

On May 26, USD/CHF closed below the 50-day moving average and generated a bearish signal. At the start of June, the price failed on multiple occasions to rally to the higher trading zone indicating that bearish sentiment was still intact. Yesterday, the market declined to the current trading zone 0.9438 – 0.9548.

A close below the low end of the aforementioned trading zone signals that bears could send USDCHF towards the vicinity of 0.9330-00. Any further close below that area may send the price even lower towards the vicinity of 0.9181-56.

On the other hand, any failure in closing below the low end of the zone highlights bear’s hesitation which may cause a reversal towards the high end of it. Any further close above that level could extend the rally towards 0.9640.

See the daily chart (zoomed in) to know more about the key levels to monitor in both scenarios.

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USD/CHF Daily Four-Hour Chart (MAY 1 – June 10, 2020)

usdchf four hour price chart 10-06-20

On May 20, USD/CHF failed to overtake the second line on the uptrend lines fan originated from the May 1 low at 0.9588 indicating that bulls were losing momentum. On May 28, the price broke below the third line highlighting that the balance tipped to the bear’s side. At present, the pair trades below the down trend line originated from the May 28 high nevertheless, any violation above this line would generate a bullish signal.

A break above 0.9578 may trigger a rally towards 0.9640 on the other hand, any break below 0.9424 could send USDCHF towards 0.9359. That said, the daily support and resistance level marked on the chart should be considered.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi, Market Analyst

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.