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USD/CHF Technical Outlook: Reversal Signals on USD vs Swiss Franc Price Chart

USD/CHF Technical Outlook: Reversal Signals on USD vs Swiss Franc Price Chart

Mahmoud Alkudsi, Analyst

USD/CHF Price - Technical Forecast

  • USD/CHF at its highest level in 2020
  • USD vs CHF chart highlights a possible downtrend reversal

USD/CHF – Bullish Outlook

On Friday, USD/CHF surged to its highest level in six weeks at 0.9781, then closed the weekly candlestick in the green with nearly 1.5% gain.

Alongside this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed above 50 reflecting the end of downtrend move with a possible start of a uptrend momentum.

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (MAR 15, 2018 – FEB 10, 2020) Zoomed Out

usdchf daily price chart zoomed out 10-02-20
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USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (Aug 13 – FEB 10, 2020) Zoomed IN

usdchf daily price chart zoomed in 10-02-20

From the daily chart, we noticed that from late Dec to Mid-Jan USD/CHF created a low with a lower low meanwhile, RSI created a low with a higher low signaling a bullish divergence i.e. a possible reversal of downtrend move.

In late Jan, bears pressed USDCHF towards 0.9629 then pulled back in early Feb causing a rally towards the high end of current trading zone 0.9569 – 0.9788. On Friday, the price closed above the 50-day average generating another bullish signal.

A close above the high end of the zone may lead more bears to exit the market and possibly to rally USDCHF towards 0.9839. Further close above this level opens the door for bulls to take charge and push towards 0.9921. In that scenario, the weekly resistance levels underlined on the chart (zoomed in) should be considered as some traders might exit/join the market around these points.

In turn, any failure in closing above the high end could mean bears comeback. This might reverse current direction towards the low end of the zone. Further close below this level may cause more bearishness towards 0.9438. That said, the weekly support levels underscored on the chart would be worth monitoring.

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USD/CHF Daily Four-Hour Chart (DEC 9 – FEB 10, 2020)

usdchf four hour price chart 10-02-20

Looking at the four-hour chart, we notice that in early Dec USD/CHF started a downtrend move led the price to 0.9613 -its lowest level in over fifteen months. Later, the market developed an inverted head and shoulders pattern. On Friday, the pair broke above the neckline located at 0.9762 hinting to rally towards 0.9900 handle.

Thus, a break above 0.9797 could send USDCHF towards 0.9833. Yet, the weekly resistance level marked on the chart should be watched closely. On the flip side, a break below 0.9743 could press USDCHF towards 0.9717. Nevertheless, the daily support level printed on the chart should be kept in focus.

See the chart to know more about the key technical levels in a further bullish/bearish scenario.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.