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USD/CHF, EUR/CHF Forecast: Price Trades Higher at a Risk of Reversal

USD/CHF, EUR/CHF Forecast: Price Trades Higher at a Risk of Reversal

2019-10-25 14:30:00
Mahmoud Alkudsi, Analyst

EUR/CHF and USD/CHF Technical Analysis

Did you check our latest forecasts on USD and EUR and Gold? Find out more for free from our Q4 forecasts for commodities and main currencies

USD/CHF, EUR/CHF – Price Action

On Sep 27, EUR/CHF ended its downtrend move and corrected higher creating a higher low at 1.0832. Later, buyers took the initiative and pushed the price higher creating on Oct 11 a higher high at 1.1039. Meanwhile, on Oct 2 USD/CHF corrected lower and carved out a lower high at 0.9996. Then on Oct 18 created a lower low at 0.9840.

On Oct 9, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed above 50 on EUR/CHF and since then remained above highlining buyer’s domination. Yesterday, the oscillator crossed above 50 reflecting the end of downtrend move on USD/CHF.

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USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (NOV 22, 2017 – Oct 25, 2019) Zoomed Out

USDCHF price daily chart 25-10-19 Zoomed out

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (July 25 – Oct 25, 2019) Zoomed IN

USDCHF price daily chart 25-10-19 Zoomed in

Looking at daily chart, we notice today buyers attempt to push USD/CHF to a higher trading zone 0.9930 – 1.0008. Therefore, a successful close above the low end of this zone could send the price towards the high end.

Further close above 1.0015 could see USDCHF trading towards 1.0128. That said, the weekly resistance levels underscored on the chart (zoomed in) should be watched closely.

On the flip side, any failure in closing above the low end of the zone would mean buyer’s hesitation and could lead USDCHF towards 0.9860. Further close below this level might press the pair towards 0.9758. Although, the daily and weekly support area and levels underlined on the chart should be considered.

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EUR/CHF Daily Price Chart (Aug 10, 2017 – Oct 25, 2019) Zoomed Out

EURCHF price daily chart 25-10-19 Zoomed out

EUR/CHF Daily Price Chart (Aug 11 – Oct 25, 2019) Zoomed IN

EURCHF price daily chart 25-10-19 Zoomed in

From the daily chart, we notice on Wednesday EUR/CHF rallied back to a higher trading zone 1.1001- 1.1057. However, since Oct 11 Buyers failed at clearing 1.1032 in multiple occasions, showing weakness of bullish momentum.

It’s noteworthy that, a close below low end of the zone could open the door to sellers to press EURCHF for a test of the neckline of head and shoulders pattern. The price may drop towards 1.0888 if breaks and remains below 1.0974.

On the other hand, a close above the low end of the zone could entice buyers to test again 1.1032 then 1.1057. However, a close above 1.1063 maybe required to resume bullish price action towards 1.1190. In that scenario, the weekly resistance areas marked on the chart should be kept in focus.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.