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USD/CHF Price Forecast: Bearish Momentum Intact - 1.1026 Remains Key

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Bearish Momentum Intact - 1.1026 Remains Key

2019-05-20 14:00:00
Mahmoud Alkudsi, Analyst

USD/CHF Price Outlook

Looking for two FED members speeches today and another two tomorrow

USD/CHF Bearish trend might push the price below 1.0026

Check out the Q2 USD and CHF forecasts to learn what is likely to drive price action through mid-year!

Find out more about FED member speeches and all the latest data releases from DailyFX Economic Calendar

USD/CHF Daily Price Chart (Jan 2019 – May 20, 2019)

USD/CHF Price Daily 20-05-19.

USD/CHF Within a Lower Range

Since Late April, USD/CHF uptrend has been showing weakness in the upward trend momentum. On May 10 started a bearish movement descending to the lower trading range (1.0134 – 1.0008) and breaking below 1.0126 where the neck line of the double top pattern resides.

USD/CHF opened last week with a downside break away gap pushing the price towards 1.0050 – its lowest level in nearly 4 weeks. The pair rallied afterwards however, it failed to test the neckline, alongside this development the relative strength indicator (RSI) last week failed to cross above 50 demonstrating that the buyers were unable to gain control.

To Summarize: It is difficult to talk about downtrend correction if USD/CHF is trading below the zone 1.0126 – 1.0134. Therefore, the price might fall hinting towards 1.0050 however, the supports at 1.0085 and 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0066 are worth monitoring. The pair could also push to the low end of the trading range at 1.0008 contingent on breaking through two support zones at 1.0049 – 1.0044 and 1.0026 – 1.0020.

What if USD/CHF Closes Above 1.0134?

This will negate the double top formation and move the pair to a higher trading range, where it may suggest a rally towards 1.0215. However, USD/CHF must clear resistance level at 1.0143 with the zone between 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0157 – 1.0165 additionally, levels at 1.0184 and 1.0200.

Just getting started?See our beginners’ guide for FX traders

USD/CHF 2 Hours Price Chart (May 20, 2019)

USD/CHF Price 2Hours Chart

Bearish Development

Today, USD/CHF, broke below the uptrend line originated from May 16 low at 1.0073, mentioned trendline has become a resistance at 1.0100, the price could swing lower towards 1.0073 however the support at 1.0085 need to be in focus. Breaking blow 1.0073 would open the way to the price to push towards 1.0050 taking in to consideration the possibility a rebound at 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0066.

USD/CHF rallied on May 17 printing 1.0121 – its highest level in one week. The price may try to retest the zone 1.0121 – 1.0126 if break above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0107. If the pair break higher the next significant resistance will be at 1.0134.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.