News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 Ai Group Services Index (APR) due at 22:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 58.7 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-06
  • The US Dollar is still struggling against most ASEAN currencies. USD/SGD remains downside-focused despite recent gains. USD/THB is eyeing a triangle. USD/IDR and USD/PHP may point lower. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/6Nvvmz8h6d https://t.co/dX69A341oc
  • US Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Volatility to Rise, Jobs Data Looms -via @DailyFX Link to Full Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2021/05/06/us-dollar-outlook-usd-cad-volatility-to-rise-jobs-data-looms.html #NFP $DXY $USDCAD https://t.co/OIYZ2YXxLK
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Kaplan Speech due at 22:05 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-06
  • The Federal Reserve discussed the vulnerability of asset prices should appetite change. Get your market update here: https://t.co/0nAEKEX1eh https://t.co/BD24UcDeyT
  • EUR/USD stronger amid broad USD weakness on Thursday $EURUSD https://t.co/h042KoSyuA
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: 0.98% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.60% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.49% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.26% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.11% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/4u2cNfSmLn
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: Federal Reserve Hints at Potential Declines in Asset Prices, Calls for Hedge Fund Transparency #Fed #FederalReserve #F…
  • Both EUR/JPY and EUR/USD are hovering near multi-year downtrend downtrends, while EUR/GBP may still have more room to the topside. Get your $EUR market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/2SYCKwz8hz https://t.co/tj6UQUDzRL
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 3.18% Gold: 1.61% Oil - US Crude: 0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/mo9LS3teJl
USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Parity as the Decision Point

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Parity as the Decision Point

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

To receive James Stanley’s Analysis directly via email, please sign up here.

Talking Points:

  • USD/CHF Technical Strategy: intermediate-term: mixed + choppy; short-term: bearish.
  • Swissy has shown support at the confluent level around .9950; but after a recent lower-low and another lower-high, bullish strategies will not be favored until price action climbs back-above parity.
  • If you’re looking for trading ideas, check out our Trading Guides. They’re free and updated for Q1, 2017. If you’re looking for ideas more short-term in nature, please check out our IG Client Sentiment.

In our last article, we looked at the potential for a burgeoning up-trend in USD/CHF, given the respectable drive seen in the Greenback towards the end of March. And this move did extend above the 1.0100 level in Swissy, giving rise to the hope for the top-side break of a bearish trend-line that’s held price action in USD/CHF since the beginning of 2017. But as geopolitical pressures began to mount over the situation developing on the Korean peninsula, Dollar strength waned and Swissy drove right-back down to the confluent zone of support around the .9950 level.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Parity as the Decision Point

Chart prepared by James Stanley

This recent false breakout leaves USD/CHF in a rather directionless manner. U.S. Dollar strength appears elusive at the moment, and this has removed a significant amount of motivation away from the top-side potential in the pair.

But from that above chart, you may have noticed something interesting about this most recent iteration of support around the .9950 level; and that’s the same confluent zone that we’ve been watching for the better part of the past half-a-year in the pair. There’s quite a bit going on around this price, as .9951 is the 61.8% retracement of the 2010-2011 major move in Swissy. At .9947 we have the 50% retracement marker of the ‘Trump Bump’, and at .9958 we have the 50% retracement of the much shorter-term recent move off of the March lows into the April highs. And this level isn’t just theoretical, as we saw a considerable amount of resistance show up around this price last year while USD/CHF was range-bound for much of the year ahead of U.S. elections.

Suffice it to say – there are/were plenty of reasons for buyers to step in around that level; and thus far we’ve seen support around this confluent zone hold. But the bigger question is whether this area of support is strong enough to propel a new trend that might, eventually, see a top-side break of that descending trend-line. And until buyers are able to push price action back-above the vaulted parity figure, traders will likely want to remain dubious of such an occurrence.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Parity as the Decision Point

Chart prepared by James Stanley

For traders looking at near-term exposure in USD/CHF, shorts can be favored while price resides below parity with the area around 1.0040 as potentially attractive for stop placement. If we do see price action break back-above parity, bullish themes could become attractive again.

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Parity as the Decision Point

Chart prepared by James Stanley

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive James Stanley’s analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES