USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Parity Still In Play
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- USD/CHF Technical Strategy: intermediate-term mixed, short-term bullish.
- We looked at RSI divergence in our last article to highlight that the bearish move may be getting a bit stale, and since then bulls have returned to push prices-higher.
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In our last article, we looked at the return of bullish price action in Swissy with eyes on the level of parity (1.0000) for support. And recent price action in USD/CHF has very much moved-along with general Dollar trends, in which the Greenback posed a near-historic run in the final two months of last year to lead-in to an extended bout of retracement in January.
But as we came into February, that move-lower in USD/CHF was looking a bit overdone, as we had remarked on the RSI divergence that had already begun to show. And while the first two weeks of February saw the return of bullish price action in the Dollar, the week since has been considerably less-directional as the Greenback has continually been rebuked at resistance.
But of particular note is that while the U.S. Dollar failed to punch-up to a new-high this week, USD/CHF was able to do so, albeit barely, before sellers returned. This would indicate an additional inclusion of Franc-weakness, and this could be encouraging for those looking to time long positions in the effort of getting on the side of the ‘bigger picture’ trend in USD/CHF.
For those looking to accumulate bullish exposure in USD/CHF, waiting for ‘higher-low’ support would likely be the most attractive way of moving-forward in the near-term. On the chart below, we look at three potential zones of support for bulls to track in the effort of catching that next higher-low support. The first zone, or ‘S1’ runs around 1.0033-1.0041, and this includes the 38.2% retracements from both major moves of the post-Election run as well as the January retracement. A bit deeper, the ‘S2’ level is set around parity, which is confluent with the 50% level of the January retracement. And from .9947-.9966 we have another confluent zone that includes the 50% retracement of the post-Election move.
Chart prepared by James Stanley
--- Written by James Stanley, Analyst for DailyFX.com
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