USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Old Resistance Now Higher-Low Support

2016-05-09 17:59:00

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Talking Points:

USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat.
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SSI remains stretched in USD/CHF by a tune of >+1.96-to-1 and this is bearish. Click here to learn more about SSI.

In our last article, we wrote about the long-legged Doji that had printed on the Daily USD/CHF chart with a rather clean bounce off of Fibonacci support at .9441; and as we looked at, this highlighted the potential for a continued top-side move in the pair. The last three days of last week saw even more retracement, and price action is now finding support on a prior area of resistance. This is bullish, and given the prior bearish trend; this would be a counter-trend observation that would behoove further patience for those looking to jump back into short positions to take further the bearish trend.

The previous ‘lower-high’ on the Daily chart is just below .9800, which is right around the 76.4% retracement of the prior move, and as long as price action remains below this level, the bearish side of the market will likely look more attractive. Should price action break above .9800 in the remainder of this week, bullish setups could be investigated; but until then, the bias remains on the short-side of USD/CHF.

The complication with setting up short USD/CHF at the moment is the fact that the shorter-term chart is continuing to show higher-lows through prior levels of relevance. The .9660 price that we had looked at in our last article for future resistance didn’t show resistance at all and, instead, became higher-low support. This has happened again in the early portion of today off of another key Fibonacci level at .9681. These continued higher-highs and higher-lows obfuscate the short-side re-entry at the present, but traders can use these levels to plot that strategy.

Should price action fall back below the support zone from .9660-.9681, traders can begin to look for short-side resumption setups should resistance show in this region, looking to institute ‘old support’ as ‘new resistance.’