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USD/CHF Technical Analysis:  Knocking on Support, but Momentum Lacking

USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Knocking on Support, but Momentum Lacking

James Stanley,

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Talking Points:

  • USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Pending Short
  • USD/CHF respected the higher-low carved out last week, finding support at the .9681 level.
  • Continued bearish momentum below .9681 Fibonacci support could open the door for the initiation of short positions.

USD/CHF continues to respect the lower-high pointed out last week, offering Fibonacci resistance at the 76.4% interval of the most recent major move (showing as black line on the below chart). As mentioned last week, bearish momentum breaks below .9681 could provide impetus for the initiation of short positions, but this level has yet to yield as price action has stubbornly remained supported throughout the day. The price of .9681 is a huge level in USD/CHF, as this is the 50% retracement of the ‘big picture’ move, comprising the 8-year high (1.2296) with the all-time low in the pair (.7065).

Short positions could offer attractiveness with targets at .9500 (confluent psychological whole number support plus the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent major move), and then .9270 (50% Fib retracement of the most recent major move), and then .9065 (confluent Fibonacci support, 38.2% of the ‘big picture move’ and 38.2% of the most recent major move).

Alternatively, support getting carved out at .9681 could also be offering a higher-low for traders that want to look for long USD/CHF positions, and this higher-low support is showing up directly around prior resistance before the up-trend topped out; a hallmark of trading trend reversals. Should support at .9681 continue to hold, .9800 becomes a level of interest as this was the ‘lower-high’ before the up-trend in the pair was thwarted. Breaks above .9800 could be construed bullishly, with targets cast towards .9905 and then parity (both whole number resistance levels).

Created with Tradingview; prepared by James Stanley

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.