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USD/CHF Technical Analysis – Rally Stalls Below 0.90 Figure

USD/CHF Technical Analysis – Rally Stalls Below 0.90 Figure

2014-05-30 04:10:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points:

  • USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Support:0.8952-56 (Apr 4 high, 100% Fib exp.), 0.8896 (76.4% Fib exp.)
  • Resistance: 0.9016 (123.6% Fib exp.), 0.9053 (138.2% Fib exp.)

The US Dollar rose against the Swiss Franc as expected after prices put in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. The pair has finally overcome resistance in the 0.8952-56 area, marked by the 100% Fibonacci expansion and the April 4 high, exposing the 123.6% level at 0.9016. A further push beyond that targets the 138.2% Fib at 0.9053. Alternatively, a reversal back below 0.8952 opens the door for a decline to the 76.4% Fibat 0.8896.

While a long a position appears reasonable from a risk/reward perspective, we will tactically opt to stand aside. The inverse correlation between USDCHF and EURUSD is now 0.92 on 20-day percent change studies, and we already have a short EURUSD position. Adding a long USDCHF trade here would in effect double our exposure to the same trade, so we will stand aside.

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis – Rally Stalls Below 0.90 Figure

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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