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Forex: USD/CHF Technical Analysis – Franc Pushes to 2-Year High

Forex: USD/CHF Technical Analysis – Franc Pushes to 2-Year High

2014-03-13 02:33:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

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Talking Points:

  • USD/CHF Technical Strategy: Flat
  • Support: 0.8705 (50% Fib exp.), 0.8660 (61.8% Fib exp.)
  • Resistance: 0.8776-50 (Feb 28 low, 38.2% Fib exp.), 0.8838 (trend line)

Opting against a long USD/CHF position yesterday proved prudent as the Swiss Franc pushed to the highest level in over two years against the US Dollar. A break of support at 0.8450, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, has exposed the 50% Fib at 0.8705. Alternatively, a reversal above the February 28 low at 0.8776 targets falling trend line resistance set from late January, now at 0.8838.

A short position from current levels targeting 0.8705 does not seem attractive. The entire trading range in question is 45 pips, whereas 20-day ATR shows a reading of 52. That means our preferred strategy of using a stop-loss activated on a daily closing basis can unduly skew risk/reward in an adverse way. With that in mind, we will pass on this setup and wait for something more palatable to emerge.

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dailyclassics_usd-chf_body_Picture_11.png, Forex: USD/CHF Technical Analysis – Franc Pushes to 2-Year High

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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