Skip to content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Reversal Slams into Support

Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Reversal Slams into Support

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Short-term Trade Levels

  • Canadian Dollar updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • USD/CAD July range-reversal now testing support at monthly lows- inflection risk
  • Resistance 1.2938/51, 1.3015 (key), 1.3076- Support 1.2859/72 (key), 1.2740s, 1.2703/16
Advertisement

The Canadian Dollar surged more than 1% against US Dollar with USD/CAD plunging nearly 2.8% off the yearly high in just five days. The decline takes Loonie towards support at the July open / range lows and the focus is on possible price inflection just lower. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD technical price charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie setup and more.

Starts in:
Live now:
Oct 10
( 12:10 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Weekly Scalping Webinar
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Daily - Loonie Short-term Trade Outlook - USDCAD Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: A breakout of the July opening-range on July 14th turned just pips ahead of the 100% extension of the 2021 advance at 1.3230 with the post-BoC reversal nearly taking out the entire monthly range on a straight shot lower. The immediate focus is on a reaction down here with a break / daily close below the monthly low-day close at 1.2859 needed to suggest a larger correction may be underway here.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 240min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 240min - Loonie Short-term Trade Outlook - USDCAD Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Loonie price action shows USD/CAD trading within the confines of a descending median-line formation extending off the June / July highs. A rebound off confluent support at the 25% parallel / monthly low-day close / July open at 1.2859/72 is offering a brief reprieve here and the focus is on a inflection off this zone. Initial resistance now back at the 2021 high-day close / 2019 low at 1.2938/51 backed by the weekly open at 1.3015 and the May high a t 1.3076. Ultimately a breach / close above the yearly high-day close at 1.3116 is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend. A break lower from here could fuel another accelerated bout of losses for the greenback with such a scenario exposing subsequent support objectives the lower parallel (currently 1.2740s) and the 200-day moving average / 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly range at 1.2703/16- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Michael Boutros
New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Beginners Guide
Get My Guide

Bottom line: USD/CAD has plunged into support at the July open / monthly low – looking for inflection here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops - rallies should be capped by the weekly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a break / close below the July range needed to keep the immediate short-bias viable. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Retail Positioning - USDCAD Technical Outlook
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD - the ratio stands at +1.72 (63.17% of traders are long) – typically bearish reading
  • Long positions are29.44% higher than yesterday and 42.05% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 13.17% lower than yesterday and 39.40% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
USD/CAD Bearish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 8% -2% 1%
Weekly 16% -2% 3%
Learn how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning impact trend
Get My Guide

US / Canada Economic Calendar

US / Canada Economic Calendar - USD/CAD Key Data Releases - Loonie Weekly Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES