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Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Peers Over Precipice- Loonie Levels

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Peers Over Precipice- Loonie Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Canadian Dollar updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • USD/CAD bears stall at major support hurdle- Loonie in consolidation
  • Key near-term support into 1.2048 – resistance / near-term bearish invalidation 1.2247
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The Canadian Dollar is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar this week with USD/CAD consolidating at key technical support. While the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside, the immediate decline may yet be vulnerable here and we‘re on breakout watch heading into the close of the week / month. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD price charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie technical setup and more.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Daily - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we warned that the USD/CAD bears may be vulnerable as the sell-off was approaching support while noting that, “rallies should be capped by 1.2156 IF price is indeed heading lower with a downside break risking a drop towards 1.1920.” The support zone in focus was 1.2048/61- a region defined by the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2011 rally and the 2017 swing low. Loonie has continued to press this zone all week with a consolidation range taking shape just above. Daily resistance stands at the 1.22-handle with a breach / close above the 2018 low at 1.2247 needed to suggest a larger reversal is underway.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 120min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 120min - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Loonie price action shows USD/CAD continuing to contract just above confluence support – look to the breakout for guidance. Initial resistance at 1.2145 backed by 1.2203 and bearish invalidation at 1.2247/57. A break below this formation would likely risk another bout of accelerated losses for the greenback with such a scenario exposing the May 2015 low at 1.1920 and the lower parallel near the 1.18-handle.

Bottom line:USD/CAD is in consolidation just above confluence support. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops on another test of key support at 1.2048/61- the focus remains on a breakout for guidance with the broader decline at risk awhile above these lows. Use caution heading into the close of the week / month with the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on tap tomorrow. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Retail Positioning - Techncial Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD - the ratio stands at +2.79 (73.59% of traders are long) – typically bearish reading
  • Long positions are6.35% lower than yesterday and 2.21% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 26.84% higher than yesterday and 35.39% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USD/CAD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

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Key US / Canada Data Releases

Key US / Canada Data Releases - USD/CAD Economic Calendar - Loonie Weekly Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Technical Setups

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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