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Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Breakout Potential– Loonie Levels

Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Breakout Potential– Loonie Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: USD/CAD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Canadian Dollarupdated technical trade levels - Weekly Chart
  • USD/CAD recovery testing multi-week high / April opening-range - breakout potential
  • Resistance 1.2619, bearish invalidation at 1.2774 - support 1.2473

The Canadian Dollar is down more than 0.71% against the US Dollar early in the week with USD/CAD once again approaching resistance at multi-week range highs. We’re looking for possible inflection up here with a close above the 1.26-handle needed to suggest a larger recovery is underway. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD weekly technical price. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie technical setup and more.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Weekly

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Weekly - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that USD/CAD had, “rebounded off confluence downtrend support – the focus is on this recovery with a pivot above 1.2619 needed to suggest a more significant low was registered last week.” It’s been a month of sideways price action and the outlook remains unchanged as USD/CAD carves a well-defined April opening-range just below confluent resistance at 1.2580-1.2619- a region defined by the 2018 yearly open and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of 2017 advance.

Weekly support stands with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March advance at 1.2473 with a break / weekly close below 1.2358 needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend towards the 2017 low-week close at 1.2156. A topside breach exposes more the highlighted resistance slope near the 2021 high-week close at 1.2774- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent topside objectives eyed at the yearly swing high at 1.2881 and the 2020 yearly-open at 1.2975.

Bottom line: USD/CAD is approaching the upper-bounds of the April opening-range range, just below a key resistance pivot. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on stretch into the 1.26-handle – losses should be limited to the yearly low-day close at 1.2485 IF price is indeed heading higher with a close above 1.2774 ultimately needed to suggest a larger trend reversal is underway. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy


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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.