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USD/CAD Technical Overview: Trying to Snap the Downtrend

USD/CAD Technical Overview: Trying to Snap the Downtrend

Paul Robinson, Strategist

USD/CAD Technical Outlook

  • USD/CAD broke major trend-line from last March
  • But still remains vulnerable to another leg lower
  • The next few days could prove to be pivotal
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USD/CAD Technical Overview: Trying to Snap the Downtrend

Recently, USD/CAD snuck above the trend-line running down from the March 2020 spike-high. It’s a trend-line that has seen a lot of action as resistance since late January. With the recent crossing it brings into question whether USD can break the grips of the downtrend versus CAD.

Following the break above the trend-line at the end of last month, we have seen a retracement that is so far seeing price hold the downward slope as support. This suggests that old resistance is becoming a new source of support.

There is a bit of a head-and-shoulders look to the price action dating to the end of February. It’s not the strongest pattern with the right shoulder looking weakish, but that doesn’t negate the fact that USD/CAD has broken trend resistance and is now using it as support.

A thrust higher soon is ideal of course, but as long as price doesn’t slip too strongly back beneath the 13-month trend-line the upside is in play. A strong close below 12501 and the trend-line would be reason to look towards a retest of the 12365 low or worse.

On the top-side, 12647 is the first level to hurdle, followed by 12748. If the USD in general can turn the corner there appears to be potential for USD/CAD to run towards long-term resistance near 13000. But, again, it needs to hold in the near-term to start building a stronger case for that to happen.

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USD/CAD Daily Chart (trying to break grips of downtrend)

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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