News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The US Dollar is moving higher after a blowout NFP report bolstered confidence in the US economic recovery. Markets will now turn attention to next week’s US inflation data which could boost the Greenback. Get your market alert from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/Ud62r3hKRF https://t.co/dvvDCJvlbP
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/7g9pB8D9xK
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/OCLzmXaDCu
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/UZela9nSIm
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/7oqC3ykBbU
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/IgUIG55MbH
  • Supply constraints, rebounding global demand and rising inflation expectations may drive crude oil prices higher in the near term. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/ezPoAwcJt7 https://t.co/NMfk1cYSvE
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/G58J1dg6y3 https://t.co/OiRiBVeuzL
  • Crude Oil Prices Aiming Higher on OPEC Surprise, Inflation Expectations - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/2021/03/06/Crude-Oil-Prices-Aiming-Higher-on-OPEC-Surprise-Inflation-Expectations.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $CL #Crudeoil #OOTT #OPEC https://t.co/AKvXWX9DLQ
  • Given the size of the rally in the eleven months preceding the beginning of the current decline a broader sell-off looks warranted. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/UxZiSulpwB https://t.co/raXvlzkGbV
Canadian Dollar Forecast: Bullish Momentum Favors CAD Gains - Levels for USD/CAD, CAD/JPY Rates

Canadian Dollar Forecast: Bullish Momentum Favors CAD Gains - Levels for USD/CAD, CAD/JPY Rates

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Advertisement

Canadian Dollar Forecast Overview:

Canadian Dollar on the Bullish Breakout Path

The Canadian Dollar remains one of the best performing major currencies in the wake of the US elections, and now that coronavirus vaccine deployment has begun in the UK and US, global optimism continues to surge (Brexit and a lack of a US fiscal deal are the only flies in the ointment at this time). In light of strength seen in the Canadian economy in recent weeks (in particular, the November Canadianjobs report), traders have amped up their bets that not only will the Canadian economy outperform moving forward, but that Bank of Canada policymakers won’t be able to do much to stop CAD appreciation.

Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Recommended by Christopher Vecchio, CFA
Trading Forex News: The Strategy
Get My Guide

CAD/JPY Rate Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (December 2019 to December 2020) (Chart 1)

cad/jpy rate, cad/jpy technical analysis, cad/jpy chart, cad/jpy rate forecast, cad/jpy rate chart

Over the past week, CAD/JPY rates have probed topside resistance, breaking through the downtrend from the June, August, and November highs. Closing through some of these recent highs, however, is a different story; only once over the past week. That said, there is growing evidence that the break of the series of lower lows will has given way to a new regime of bullish trading. It still holds that “clearing 81.58 and 81.91 would be strong indications that CAD/JPY rates were embarking on an earnest bullish breakout attempt.”

As such, CAD/JPY rates are maintaining bullish momentum, even as price action has been staggered around the November swing high at 81.58. Daily MACD continues to trend higher in bullish territory, and the pullback in daily Slow Stochastics has yet to see the overbought condition lost in its entirety. With CAD/JPY rates above their daily 5-, 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope, which is in bullish sequential order, the path of least resistance still appears to be higher.

USD/CAD Rate Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (December 2019 to December 2020) (Chart 2)

usd/cad rate, usd/cad technical analysis, usd/cad chart, usd/cad rate forecast, usd/cad rate chart

We continue to track the USD/CAD path lower, which retains robust bearish momentum. Having previously lost a longer-term Fibonacci retracement, the 38.2% retracement from the 2012 low to 2016 high at 1.2758, more evidence is cropping up that significant technical damage has transpired. Ongoing weakness following the break of the uptrend from the 2012 and 2018 swing lows offers more evidence of a long-term double top coming into play.

USD/CAD rates continue to trade below their daily 5, 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope, which is in bearish sequential order. Daily MACD is trending below its signal line, while daily Slow Stochastics are nestled in oversold territory. It is still the case that “the path of least resistance is lower for USD/CAD rates, at least until the daily EMA envelope is broken (USD/CAD rates close above the daily 21-EMA). A near-term bounce higher won’t negate the significant technical damage done in recent weeks.”

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by Christopher Vecchio, CFA
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

IG Client Sentiment Index: USD/CAD Rate Forecast (December 8, 2020) (Chart 3)

igcs, ig client sentiment index, igcs usd/cad, usd/cad rate chart, usd/cad rate forecast, usd/cad technical analysis

USD/CAD: Retail trader data shows 66.74% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.01 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 7.89% higher than yesterday and 0.92% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 21.88% higher than yesterday and 72.98% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall.

Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USD/CAD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

Read more: FX Week Ahead - Top 5 Events: Fed, BOE, & BOJ Meetings; Canadian Inflation; Australian Jobs Report

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES