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Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Plunges to 2020 Yearly Open Support

Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Plunges to 2020 Yearly Open Support

Michael Boutros,
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Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

  • Canadian Dollar updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • USD/CAD plummets into yearly open support – risk for inflection around 1.2975
  • Downside break exposes 1.2887 – Near-term bearish invalidation at 1.3159

The Canadian Dollar is up nearly 0.8% against the US Dollar since the start of the week with USD/CAD plummeting back into objective yearly open support. While the broader risk remains weighted to the downside, the immediate decline may be vulnerable here and we’re looking for price inflection off this zone These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD price charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie technical setup and more.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD Daily - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that a, “near-term breakdown in USD/CAD takes price into the lower bounds of a multi-month consolidation pattern heading into the US presidential elections.” The event charged a test of the objective 2020 yearly open at 1.2975 (low registered at 1.2928) before rebounding with price once again settling just above this threshold ahead of the holiday break.

A close below 1.2975 is needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend with such a scenario exposing subsequent support objectives at the 1.2887 and the lower parallels / 1.02782. Daily resistance stands at the 75% parallel (currently ~1.3080s) with a broader bearish invalidation at pitchfork resistance around 1.3160s.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 120min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 120min - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Loonie price action shows USD/CAD trading within the confines of an embedded descending pitchfork extending off the September / October highs with price now probing confluence support here at the September low / yearly open at 1.2975/94- looking for inflection off this zone. Weekly open resistance stands at 1.3081 backed by the 50% retracement of the October decline / upper parallel at 1.3159 – a breach there is needed to suggest a larger reversal is underway towards 1.3213 and the November open at 1.3314.

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Bottom line: USD/CAD is trading into the key support at the objective yearly open – looking for a reaction down here. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops. Be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion ahead of 1.3159 on recoveries IF price is indeed heading lower. Ultimately a breach / close above this formation would be needed to shift the focus higher again in the greenback. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Forecast - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD - the ratio stands at +3.14 (75.82% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are13.22% higher than yesterday and 24.96% higher from last week
  • Short positions are 3.28% lower than yesterday and 37.79% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bearish contrarian trading bias. from a sentiment standpoint.
USD/CAD Bearish
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 60% -8% 14%
Weekly 13% 7% 9%
Learn how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning impact trend
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Key US / Canada Data Releases

Key US / Canada Data Releases - USD/CAD Economic Calendar - Loonie Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.