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Canadian Dollar Price Outlook – USD/CAD Looking to Extend Rally

Canadian Dollar Price Outlook – USD/CAD Looking to Extend Rally

Paul Robinson, Strategist

USD/CAD Technical Highlights:

  • USD/CAD is in breakout territory
  • A little more strength can get it into open space

The theme this week has been widespread intervention to combat economic weakness as a result of the coronavirus. The Fed and BoC cut rates by 50-bps each. There was little net effect from the two actions outside of some very short-term USD/CAD volatility.

Looking at the weekly chart, the US Dollar is well positioned to rally against the Canadian Dollar. With price having taken out the 2016 trend-line (neatly tied to a parallel running on the underside of the past four years), and also breaking above the September high at 13382, the upside appears to have been softened up for USD/CAD to keep extending.

This is the macro outlook, one which could eventually take price back to the highs in 2016 at 14899, but the shorter-term may still be a bit sloppy until there is some more separation from the breakout point. The preferred approach on this end is to look for solid-looking consolidation patterns (flags, triangles, rectangles, etc.), along with shallow pullbacks in a sequence of higher-highs and higher-lows (& ideally back to support levels).

As long as price stays above the 2016 trend-line the bullish outlook will remain intact. Resistance clocks in at 13565 (May ‘19 high) and then 13664 (Dec ’18 high). There is a slope running over from May of 2017 that could join forces with the May high to strengthen the 13565-area as resistance, but not a hurdle seen at this time capable of denting the more significant breakout we are seeing.

USD/CAD Daily Chart (sloppy but could clean up)

USD/CAD daily chart

USD/CAD Chart by TradingView

USD/CAD Weekly Chart (in big-picture breakout area)

USD/CAD weekly chart

USD/CAD Chart by TradingView

Resources for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.