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Canadian Dollar – USD/CAD May Snap Month-long Uptrend

Canadian Dollar – USD/CAD May Snap Month-long Uptrend

Paul Robinson,
What's on this page

USD/CAD Technical Highlights:

  • USD/CAD turning down from highlighted area of resistance
  • Bullish channel coming under fire, could break soon

The US Dollar recently ran out of momentum versus the Canadian Dollar, as the lower end of a resistance zone from near 13330 up to 13382 came into play. The month-long rally may have run its course for now, setting up for a reaction lower as range-trading conditions will likely persist.

It may take more push-pull up around resistance before we see a breakdown, so keep an eye on the channel structure off the late-October low. There are a couple of ways one can draw in the parallels. The first off of the October 29 low, and the other off a pivot on November 5.

A breach of both lower parallels and 13254 will be viewed as a reason to look for USD/CAD to continue lower. The first support levels to watch in the event of a break are 13191 and 13115. A full retracement of the up-move isn’t out of the question, but we will want to see how aggressive selling is on a channel-break, first, before determining potential.

But before we can even get to the bearish scenario here, support should be respected and until it breaks the channel structure keeps the USD/CAD outlook neutral to bullish. A further probing of resistance may still be in store up to levels from August-October and the 2016 trend-line.

It seems unlikely at this time that a sustained bullish breakout will develop given the low-volatility, choppy trading environment we remain stuck in.

Trading Forecasts and Educational Guides for traders of all experience levels can be found on the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

USD/CAD Daily Chart (turning down from resistance zone)

USD/CAD Daily Chart (turning down from resistance zone)

USD/CAD 4-hr Chart (lower side of channel coming into play)

USD/CAD 4-hr Chart (lower side of channel coming into play)

USD/CAD Charts by TradingView

***Updates will be provided on the above thoughts and others in the trading/technical outlook webinars held at 1030 GMT on Tuesday and Friday. If you are looking for ideas and feedback on how to improve your overall approach to trading, join me on Thursday each week for the Becoming a Better Trader webinar series.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.