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USD/CAD Trades At 1-Month Highs On Commodity Downturn, CAD CPI Ahead

USD/CAD Trades At 1-Month Highs On Commodity Downturn, CAD CPI Ahead

2017-04-20 15:11:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Will Oil Or NAFTA Renegotiations Drive CAD in 2Q? See our forecast to find out what’s driving market trends!

Talking Points:

  • USD/CAD Technical Strategy: Favoring CAD Strength Continuing
  • Crude Oil helping to guide USD/CAD higher
  • CPI on Friday could turn the tide for CAD if BoC needs to shift from their dovish stance

The Canadian Dollar Bulls have why the 200-DMA (blue line at 1.3225) garners so much respect. Since testing the 200-DMA on April 13, USD/CAD has moved higher by over 2% thanks in part to the pull-back in Crude Oil.

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The price test worth watching as USD/CAD trades in a choppy fashion in the rising channel is the March 09 high of 1.3535. A break above 1.3535 could open up the argument that we’re soon to trade toward the highest levels since 14-months. However, before we get excited about a possible breakout in USD/CAD, remember that Friday holds the Canadian CPI data.

A strong CPI print has the ability to shift the BoC from their dovish tone if there is a print above 2%. Outside of the data, sentiment and relative strength tend to favor anticipation of a breakout higher. Looking at IG Client Sentiment, we see a sharp rise in USD/CAD short positioning as the CAD continues to sit as the second weakest currency in the G8 with AUD the weakest.

We use the Sentiment Reading as a contrarian indicator favoring further upside. The backdrop that would be needed to favor another test of the 200-DMA at 1.3225 would be a surprising CPI and a move higher in Crude Oil above the April high of $53.74/bb.

USD/CAD Trades At 1-Month Highs On Commodity Downturn, CAD CPI Ahead

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

USD/CAD Sentiment:

USD/CAD Trades At 1-Month Highs On Commodity Downturn, CAD CPI Ahead

USDCAD: As of April 20, retail trader data shows 38.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.57 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since Apr 03 when USDCAD traded near 1.33841. The number of traders net-long is 9.1% lower than yesterday and 25.2% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 43.0% higher than yesterday and 16.2% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDCAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDCAD-bullish contrarian trading bias.(Emphasis Mine)

What do retail traders’ buy/sell decisions hint about the CAD trend? Find out here!


Shorter-Term USD/CAD Technical Levels: Thursday, April 20, 2017

For those interested in shorter-term levels of focus than the ones above, these levels signal important potential pivot levels over the next 48-hours.

USD/CAD Trades At 1-Month Highs On Commodity Downturn, CAD CPI Ahead

Contact and discuss markets with Tyler on Twitter: @ForexYell

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.