We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $USD faces selling pressure against the Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso. More losses may be in store in $USDMYR as $USDPHP descends through rising support from 2013. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/t3kmFpmg1w https://t.co/miBrgxmtkA
  • $AUDJPY has launched yet another attempt to breach a multi-month downward trend resistance after failing to break above it in September. Will two consecutive defeats precede a reversal lower? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/b3nWUu0QZy https://t.co/Lj0ZSWOdp1
  • The #Euro has breached resistance guiding it lower for nearly four months, setting the stage for gains. Any near-term rise is unlikely to derail the long-term downtrend, however. Get your Euro market update here: https://t.co/gl9VRc3XEp https://t.co/K2mQuEolQc
  • We just closed out the $DXY's worst weekly tumble since January 2018...and it still hasn't cleared this frustratingly restrictive channel https://t.co/cJedpn0g8D
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 GBP U.K. Government Sits to Discuss Brexit due at 23:01 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-10-18
  • “Gold Price Charts on Cusp of Major Breakout” - via @DailyFX Check out the preview of this week’s technical outlook for $XAUUSD below. Link to full analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/10/18/xau-usd-xauusd-gold-price-charts-on-the-cusp-of-a-major-breakout.html https://t.co/7X6nkafn7D
  • With a #Brexit deal in focus and the US-China trade war de-escalating, G10 currencies’ central banks’ rate cut odds have receded. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/k7XkyKD7iW https://t.co/vaZV1vSWjP
  • ECB President Lagarde says Trump should stop criticizing the Fed with tweets -BBG
  • Politics continues to dictate volatility in the $GBP with option premiums at the highest since the 2016 EU referendum. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/cpApmLPBgR https://t.co/vwpmpyZOam
  • The US Citi Economic Surprise Index dropped to 8 today, down from 44.9 on September 26th https://t.co/y3Jk0TUhJk
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: CAD Bounces Ahead of Friday’s Inflation Report

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: CAD Bounces Ahead of Friday’s Inflation Report

2016-11-15 19:35:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Talking Points:

Quick Fundamental Take:

The Canadian Dollar had a spat of good news on Tuesday as Vancouver Suburbs (one of the hottest housing markets in the world) brought about the fastestCanadian Homes Sales in six months per Bloomberg. At the same time that Canada saw positive domestic data, the Oil market has bounced ~7% on news that OPEC will be making a concerted diplomatic push to help assure an agreement to cut production is achieved.

Access Our Free Q4 Dollar Outlook As The US Dollar Faces An Unorthodox Presidential Election

The final negotiations for the potential OPEC accord in Vienna are on November 28. Given the recent production numbers from Iran, which is producing record output and rhetoric from other member countries that are seeking an exemption, we could see a partial cut or freeze. Either way, it appears to be a fraction of what the market thought they were getting after the Algiers meeting concluded. The price of Oil will look to the post-election high of $45.89/bbl as resistance. An inability to break above this zone would favor further USD strength and Oil weakness that would also likely be a drag on the Canadian Dollar due to potential trade risks arising from President-elect Donald Trump in the U.S pre-inauguration agenda and possible trade re-negotiations.

Having a Hard Time Trading USD/CAD? This May Be Why

One last note is from the option premiums being placed on USD/CAD Calls against USD/CAD Puts. When there is a Call: Put Ratio that is positive, it shows options traders (speculators and institutions) are more concerned and will to pay more to protect against the upside (CAD weakness). When looking at 1M risk reversals across G10FX + Crosses, USDCAD has the highest premium being paid on Calls relative to Puts, which helps show that the bias on USD/CAD likely remains higher despite Tuesday’s pullback.

Technical Focus:

D1 USDCAD: The Uptrend Is Advancing Ever-Increasingly

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: CAD Bounces Ahead of Friday’s Inflation Report

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

The Canadian Dollar bounced on Tuesday morning off of significant resistance that we’ve been targeting. Namely, the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of the January-May range at 1.3575. The weakness displayed in the Candian Dollar has aligned with the trend shift that we’ve been focusing on since the price broke above the Ichimoku Cloud and was followed by the momentum line. We continued to favor upside based on both the charts and fundamental story developing this week.

You can Learn To Trade With Ichimoku Cloud At My Free Weekly Webinar By Registering Here

As the price remains above the Ichimoku Cloud, the path of least resistance remains higher, and we could be paving the way for an aggressive rise as we move from a leading diagonal to an impulsive wave ‘iii’ of ‘C’ in Elliott Wave terms. The leading diagonal view is encouraged by the recent break above the pattern high at 1.3313, and the three-wave move toward a 50% retracement of the diagonal down to 1.3005.

The recent turnaround off of 1.32647 provides a base that we can look to as a foundation for advancing the uptrend. As long as the price stays above this level, we would expect upside pressure to grow. The 1.32647 level is highlighted on the chart, and price staying above this level will cause us to treat Tuesday’s turnaround as a counter-trend move that is anticipated to reverse higher favoring further USD strength.

In addition to Elliott Wave and Ichimoku, we have added a Modified Schiff Pitchfork applied to the chart above. The Modified pitchfork originates the median line from the 50% retracement of price and time of the point of X and A. The Modified Schiff Pitchfork places a helpful frame of price action. USD/CAD did bounce off the upper parallel line on Tuesday, which could provide a trend-based resistance if we continue to move higher without a further breakout catalyst. However, a break above the 50% retracement of the January-May range at 1.3757 would be an early indication the strong breakout resuming.

Interested In Learning the Traits of DailyFX’s Successful Traders? If So, Click Here

In addition to the short-term volatility, we’ll continue to favor buying support (not a trade recommendation), as the potential for a strong move higher continues to build in USD/CAD.

The next upside target is the 50% retracement of the January-May range at 1.3575. 1.35572 is also the 100% Fibonacci Expansion that aligns with an equal wave off the August low that would match the May to July rise. If 1.3575 breaks, we’ll be on the watch of the 61.8% retracement of the same range at 1.3838.

A few of the support levels that would need to break to change the tune from Bullish to Neutral is 1.3312, the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of the Jan-May range followed by Today’s low of 1.3264 that was mentioned above.

Key Short-Term Levels as of Tuesday, November 15, 2016

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: CAD Bounces Ahead of Friday’s Inflation Report


Interested in learning more about markets and trading strategies? Join Tyler and other DailyFX analysts for FREE every trading by registering HERE!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.