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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Bearish Wedge Pattern Running Out of Real Estate

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Bearish Wedge Pattern Running Out of Real Estate

2015-12-01 13:52:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Talking Points:

-USD/CAD Technical Strategy: Bearish Wedge Flirting With YTD Highs Brings Caution

-Heavy Economic Calendar Could Bring Big Moves

-US Dollar Currently Providing Support for USDCAD, Break below Support Opens USDCAD Downside

The week's opening Canadian Dollar’s gains were not able to hold through a weak GDP report. The September GDP shrank 0.5%, which was the largest monthly drop since 2009, and on that drop, USDCAD rose again to the formidable 1.3400 zone. USDCAD has shown an inability to close above the 1.3370 low price (the September 29th/ YTD extreme day). We’ll keep an eye for CAD strength into USD/CAD resistance. An inability to hold this support could show a strengthening of the CAD could develop. Later this week, we'll have the Bank of Canada rate decision and employment numbers, along with numous other high importance events that are sure to provide relative volatility to this pair and others.

The technical pattern in focus on USD/CAD is the Rising Wedge that began its decent on October 15. A breakdown that shows price closing below the trendline drawn across the higher-lows is bearish. The price support in focus ,which accompanies many of the closing and price lows in the second half of November is 132.80. The next support level that would validate a bearish move out of the bearish price pattern would develop on a close below 133.22, the November 12th low. Regarding resistance, the YTD high of 1.3456 is the upside target and the current invalidation of the rising wedge pattern.

Despite the bearish pattern, USDCAD’s resilience via higher closes has been undeniable. There are a few other technical developments, such as the loss of upside momentum as per RSI(5), the tight price range over the second half of November, or the falling ATR that points to the upside losing its appeal . However, we should be aware of new information this week that could encourage traders to buy USD or sell CAD that they weren’t already aware of now. Regardless, patience is a virtue in the sense that the pattern remains unproven, and the null hypothesis of the trader is that the trend will continue regardless of the evidence pointing to the contrary. A close into new year-to-date highs would naturally turn focus higher with 1.3222 remaining key support for new long position entries

FXCM’s Trading Book Shows That Upside May Continue Yet.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Bearish Wedge Pattern Running Out of Real Estate

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.