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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Reaching a Polarity Point?

USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Reaching a Polarity Point?

2015-10-29 20:57:00
Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

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Talking Points:

-USD/CAD Technical Strategy: Looking To Sell Rallies

-RSI (5) Continues To Print Lower Highs

-61.8% Fibonacci Resistance Of Recent Move Lower

USD/CAD is positively correlated to the US Dollar. A positive correlation means they move roughly in the same direction. Therefore, a clear understanding of the technical direction and outlook of one can help you with the other. As usual, getting a clear reading will not be easy. To complicate matters, both USD/CAD & US Dollar are inversely correlated WTI US Oil, so they move roughly in opposite directions. As you can imagine, the direction of oil is very important to multiple economies yet you can get a handle on what the next move will be for oil.

Below, you will notice the USD/CAD chart with a rising wedge pattern. The rising wedge pattern is a topping pattern that signifies weakness over time and favors a strong reversal. From the 2015 high, price broke down nearly 600 pips toward the mid-March highs. However, notice that the retracement has run out of steam at 61.8% Fibonacci resistance recent move lower. The 61.8% retracement is a popular zone for a deep countertrend move before resuming in the direction of the impending larger trend. The real tell will be if the 61.8% retracement holds in price breaks down below the recent lows of the March high near 1.2830.

The recent strength of the US Dollar has been a key driver for this pair. However, with the US Dollar facing key long-term resistance and WTI US Oil may be forming a basing pattern, USD/CAD may finish the year with strong moves. Because traders are more concerned with risk: reward as opposed to divining the future, the downside is favored, and stops would be brought to breakeven on a break below the March high and October low at 1.2830. T.Y.

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: Reaching a Polarity Point?

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