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US Dollar Technical Outlook: DXY at Risk of Heading to Yearly Low

US Dollar Technical Outlook: DXY at Risk of Heading to Yearly Low

Paul Robinson, Strategist

USD Technical Outlook

  • DXY broke upward sloping channel, 200-day next
  • May be on its way to trading to the yearly low at 89.20

US Dollar Technical Outlook: DXY at Risk of Heading to Yearly Low

Last week, the US Dollar Index (DXY) broke the upward sloping channel we were looking to as a guide. The idea was that if the index stayed within then the bias would be upward, even if weak; but break the lower parallel of the channel and the outlook turns towards bearish.

With the channel cleanly broken, the next level of support to watch is the 200-day moving average currently at 91.33. It may or may not act as a meaningful level of support. The thinking is that if the DXY doesn’t turn around soon, then it will sink towards 90 and even the yearly low at 89.20.

Above the yearly low is a low level trend-line running over from the January low. A break below and it won’t take long for the dollar to test the worst levels of 2021. Whether we break down below that important threshold or not is of course yet to be seen, but if what we have seen so far this year is any indication, it may hold and allow a broader range to be built.

But before thinking about how price will behave at the yearly lows, we need to first concern ourselves with what is in front of us. It does appear that more selling is ahead at the least in the near-term. Bounces and consolidations forming on the daily and 4-hr time-frames will be viewed as potential opportunities to join the trend lower.

On the flip-side, to give the DXY a meaningfully bullish outlook some work will need to be done. A strong push higher that holds near 93 would be good for starters. Overall, some time and patience is likely needed to have a good risk/reward set-up form for longs.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart

dxy daily chart

DXY Chart by TradingView

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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