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US Dollar Technical Analysis: DXY Lines and Levels to Watch in Days Ahead

US Dollar Technical Analysis: DXY Lines and Levels to Watch in Days Ahead

Paul Robinson, Strategist

USD Technical Outlook

  • US Dollar Index (DXY) chopping sideways, leaves market in limbo
  • Firm support to watch as a potential floor or trap door if it breaks
  • Recent high aligning with falling 200-day

US Dollar Technical Analysis: DXY Trying to Figure Out a Direction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been chopping sideways with no real directional cues, but that could soon change with levels becoming increasingly clear. The grind leaves us with little to do in the very near-term unless opting to fade short-term price swings.

But with a little patience the choppy price action could bring conviction as levels get repeatedly tested and thus become more reliable as support and resistance. Thursday’s bounce helped cement a floor right around 91.75, with the level first having been resistance on March 2 and then validated as a level when it held as support on the 11th.

On continued weakness from here it will be important to see how price action plays out at support. A turn higher in momentum once support is touched will suggest that the range will to continue to develop at the least, with perhaps an upward bias later on if resistance can break.

On the other hand, a firm 4-hr/daily closing candle below support may kick off a leg lower towards the trend-line off the yearly low; currently just above 90.

On the top-side, resistance clocks in around 92.50. It’s big in both the short and long-term. There have been several turning points over the years from around this level, with the most recent occurring in August.

Shorter-term, the monthly high (92.50) also aligns with the declining 200-day moving average. A rise and break above will have the DXY in new recovery territory, but still running against the tide as the broader trend is still pointed lower.

All-in-all, conviction is lacking until we see further developments. Getting good price action around the floor near 91.75 may offer the best opportunity.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly Chart (big level)

DXY weekly chart

US Dollar Index (DXY) 4-hr Chart (Support is clear at the moment)

dxy 4-hr chart

DXY Charts by TradingView

Resources for Forex Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.