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US Dollar Outlook: USD Rally Stalls Ahead of FOMC- DXY Levels

US Dollar Outlook: USD Rally Stalls Ahead of FOMC- DXY Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

US Dollar Technical Price Outlook: DXY Weekly Trade Levels

  • US Dollar technical trade level update – Weekly Chart
  • USD breakout halted at resistance – rally vulnerable into FOMC
  • DXY weekly resistance steady at 92.28 – constructive while above 89.93

The US Dollar Index is poised to snap a two-week winning streak with the DXY off by nearly 0.9% in early New York trade on Friday. The decline comes on the heels of a failed attempt to break above key resistance and leaves the late-February advance vulnerable in the days ahead while below this threshold. These are the updated technical targets and invalidation levels that matter on the US Dollar Index price chart heading into the FOMC rate decision next week. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this DXY technical setup and more.

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US Dollar Index Price Chart – DXY Weekly

US Dollar Index Price Chart - DXY Weekly - USD Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; US Dollar Index on Tradingview

Notes: In last month’s US Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that the DXY breakout was, “approaching initial resistance objectives at the upper bounds of the longer-term downtrend- the immediate advance may be vulnerable into this zone…look for downside exhaustion ahead of the 2020 open at 89.93 IF price is indeed heading higher with close above 92.28 needed to suggest a more significant trend reversal is underway.” The index briefly registered an intraweek low at 89.68 into the close of February before ripping higher with the rally faltering this week at the 92.28 resistance zone- the advance may be vulnerable while below this threshold.

Initial support rests back at the 2017 swing low at 91.01 with broader bullish invalidation steady at the objective yearly open at 89.93- a break / close below this threshold would be needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend with such a scenario exposing the 2018 low-week close at 89.07. A breach / weekly close above the 2018 yearly open / August low close at 92.28/30 keeps the focus on the highlighted trendline confluence region near ~93.20s- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The US Dollar breakout has been halted at the first major resistance hurdle and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable near-term while below this threshold. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops- be on the lookout for downside exhaustion ahead of 91 IF price is indeed heading higher on this stretch. Ultimately a break below the yearly open would prove terminal. Stay nimble as we head into next week with the FOMC interest rate decision highlighting a jam packed economic docket.

USD Forecast
USD Forecast
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.