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US Dollar Outlook: USD Snaps Back- Are Bears Taking Control?

US Dollar Outlook: USD Snaps Back- Are Bears Taking Control?

Michael Boutros, Strategist

US Dollar Technical Price Outlook: DXY Near-term Trade Levels

  • US Dollar technical trade level update – DXY Daily & Intraday Charts
  • USD rebounded falters ahead of downtrend resistance- pullback testing initial support
  • Yearly open support 89.87/93 Resistance at 91 and 91.32/44 (key)

The US Dollar Index plunged more than 0.6% since the start of the week with the recent DXY rally faltering just ahead of broader downtrend resistance. So, is the USD recovery over? While the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the recent sell-off keeps price within the confines of the near-term advance and we’re looking for a reaction just lower for guidance in the days ahead. These are the updated technical targets and invalidation levels that matter on the US Dollar Index technical price charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this DXY technical setup and more.

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US Dollar Index Price Chart – DXY Daily

US Dollar Index Price Chart - DXY Daily - USD Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; US Dollar Index on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: A breakout of the November trendline into the start of the year fueled a rally of more than 1.95% off the lows with the index turning just pips ahead of the 2017 low / median-line resistance at 91.01 this week. Confluence daily support now rests at the 61.8% & 88.6% retracement / yearly open at 89.87/93 – a break / close below this threshold would be needed to suggest resumption of the broader downtrend towards the 2018 low-day close at 89.07.

US Dollar Index Price Chart – DXY 240min

US Dollar Index Price Chart - DXY 240min - USD Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at DXY price action shows the index trading within a near-term ascending pitchfork formation extending off the December / January lows with the recent rally faltering into the 75% parallel. The decline is now testing the 25% parallel and we’re looking for possible inflection here. Initial resistance back at the median-line backed by 91.01- Ultimately a breach / close above the 38.2% retracement / 2017 low-day close / 100% extension at 91.32/44 is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place. For now, the focus is on possible support on this pullback with 89.87/93 and 89.61 representing areas of interest for possible intraday downside exhaustion IF the greenback is indeed still heading higher.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom line: The US Dollar recovery has stalled at resistance and the immediate focus is on this pullback as the index approaches near-term uptrend support. From at trading standpoint, look for inflection into the lower parallels for guidance with a break below this near-term formation needed to mark resumption. Ultimately, a larger Dollar recovery may offer more favorable opportunities closer to broader downtrend resistance. Review my latest US Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term DXY technical trade levels.

USD Forecast
USD Forecast
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.