USD PRICE ANALYSIS – US DOLLAR RISES AGAINST EURO, POUND STERLING & YEN AS DISMAL NFP REPORT SPURS SAFE-HAVEN DEMAND; CAN THE DXY INDEX RALLY CONTINUE?
- DXY Index extends higher while EUR/USD and GBP/USD edge lower as USD/JPY climbs despite an alarmingly poor NFP report
- The US Dollar remains supported by demand for safe-haven assets amid the coronavirus lockdown and surge in unemployment
- USD price action might continue to advance as cash-starved investors bid up the US Dollar and overpower the boost in liquidity from the FOMC
The US Dollar maintained gains recorded early on during Friday’s trading session after the March 2020 NFP report came across the wires. Judging by performance in the DXY Index, the US Dollar was higher by about 0.55% on balance even though the latest nonfarm payrolls print was the worst jobs report since 2009.
DXY – US DOLLAR INDEX PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (YEAR-TO-DATE)
Chart created by @RichDvorakFX with TradingView
The DXY Index extended its recent string of advances as USD price action gained ground against major peers, like the Euro, Pound and Yen, which comprise 57.6%, 11.9% and 13.6% of the broader US Dollar Index, respectively.
As the coronavirus pandemic ravages the global economy, and steers forex traders into safe-haven currencies while risk aversion runs rampant, the DXY Index rebound back toward its recent peak could continue, and perhaps reach for fresh multi-year highs.
EUR/USD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (12 DECEMBER 2019 TO 03 APRIL 2020)
EUR/USD price action is lower by about 350-pips since last week after five consecutive days of downside. The recent bearish MACD crossover suggests more pain could be ahead for spot EUR/USD as US Dollar strength keeps dominating its Euro counterpart. Also, after EUR/USD breached the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of last month’s volatile trading range, selling pressure may persist and send spot prices toward the 1.06 handle.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -4% | -14% | -7% |
| Weekly | 2% | -6% | -1% |
GBP/USD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (28 JANUARY TO 03 APRIL 2020)
GBP/USD has pulled back markedly following another rejection at the 1.2500 price mark – a zone of technical resistance underpinned by its 34-day exponential moving average and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its latest bearish leg – that was previously noted in this US Dollar forecast. In turn, spot GBP/USD price action might be primed for more downside as the Pound-Dollar drops near its weakest reading on record around the 1.15 level.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 8% | -16% | 0% |
| Weekly | 19% | -25% | 3% |
USD/JPY PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (10 FEBRUARY TO 03 APRIL 2020)
USD/JPY has gyrated broadly throughout the year as US Dollar and Japanese Yen weather the wave of currency volatility. Although spot USD/JPY price action has perked up over the last two trading sessions, the Dollar-Yen may find itself bogged down by and anchored to the major area of technical confluence around 108.00-108.50.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -12% | 0% | -3% |
| Weekly | -17% | 5% | -1% |
This level is underscored by the practically-horizontal 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. That said, the trendline of support connecting the March 09 and April 01 lows, as well as a healthy RSI, speak to potential for higher spot prices.
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-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com
Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight
