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US Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, DXY

US Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, DXY

Paul Robinson, Strategist

US Dollar Technical Highlights:

  • US Dollar Index (DXY) backing towards big support test
  • AUD/USD looking to come off of trend resistance
  • USD/CAD bounce for real? Not trusting it…
  • GBP/USD still holding its own, bullish so far

Check out the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook for major markets and currencies in the DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts.

US Dollar Index (DXY) backing towards big support test

The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to look like it wants to head lower, and with that the lower parallel of a channel in place since last year could soon get tested. It’s a structure that has kept the tepid trend pointed higher, so a hold there is viewed as critical if a larger reversal isn’t to take shape. A breakdown below could trigger big selling as the longer-term trend comes into question with market participants. But as always, must respect support until it’s broken.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly Chart (bottom of channel nearing)

US Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, DXY

U.S. Dollar Currency Index (DXY) Chart by TradingView

AUD/USD looking to come off of trend resistance

AUD/USD has showed some strength recently, but if the longer-term trend and resistance have anything to say about it, there might not be much more left on the upside from here. Between a one-year trend-line and the 200-day coming down just above it, it’s a tough spot for Aussie to climb through. There is a developing channel off the recent low that traders with a more conservative approach can wait to break before becoming aggressive with shorts.

AUD/USD Daily Chart (turning off resistance)

US Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, DXY

AUD/USD Chart by TradingView

USD/CAD bounce for real? Not trusting it…

USD/CAD came very near the 13000 mark before bouncing hard on the BoC meeting on Wednesday. The 13000 mark is important (13015 to be exact), because a break below will be not only create a lower-low from July, but also help cement the 2012 trend-line break. Without this confirmation discussed in last week’s USD/CAD article, it is tough to get too bearish. A break, though, and USD/CAD could in trouble for some time to come.

USD/CAD Weekly Chart (bearish leg of patterns could trigger soon)

US Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, DXY

USD/CAD Charts by TradingView

USD/CAD Daily Chart (Bounce only temporary?)

US Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, DXY

GBP/USD still holding its own, bullish so far

GBP/USD is holding up well so far given how far it had previously rallied in such a short period of time. If it can maintain a bid off the upper parallel tied to the trend-line off the September low, look for higher levels to come. A little more time would do the chart some good, though, to build a stronger base before attempting to propel higher. Overall bullish at this time.

GBP/USD Daily Chart (holding up well so far)

US Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, DXY

GBP/USD Chart by TradingView

Forex & CFD Trader Resources

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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