US DOLLAR Technical Analysis: Correction Lower Running Out of Steam?
-US Dollar Technical Strategy: Bullish Against November Opening Range low of 12,013
-US Dollar has been pushed around in December, as seasonality suggests
-100-DMA Moving Average Looking to Hold Price at 12,040
There is a lot of doubt surrounding the US Dollar going into December 16, the date the Federal Reserve is presumed to announce a rate hike and lay out the requirements for subsequent hikes. One could understand why the US Dollar would be sold as a precedent of disappointing actions from central banks in December have led to FX reversals. If there’s one event left on the calendar that bring about a big upset, it would likely be the rate increase. However, it’s important to look at the big picture as price stays above support and the 100-day moving average. Other central banks may continue easing, and the divergence between the Fed and its counterparts could continue to drive USD strength. Also, if rates do rise, and rise sequentially, you could see USD oddly enough being put into a Carry Basket, which would boost the USD further yet.
The US dollar is working lower in a corrective channel as outlined by Andrew’s Pitchfork tool (red) toward the 100-day moving average at 12,140. A corrective move precedes a trend continuation move, and until the strong support of the October 15 low at 12,013 is broken, the upside will be preferred. You can see on the chart that we are coming upon a multitude of levels that include the November opening range low of 12,013 and an earlier key level of support of the 50% retracement of the October-November range in addition to the weekly S1 pivot sit around 12137/5. Below the 12,137 zone is the parallel support on the pitchfork between the 50-61.8% retracement of the October-November range.
The US Dollar index still looks poised to move higher even though it has taken longer than expected to break above the early November high of 12,212. The upside is favored, and the biggest sustained move higher could still be upon us if the rate hike schedule over the next two years exceeds expectations. Should we break below the November opening range low of 12,013 and the 0.618% retracement of the October to November range of 11,993, we could credibly start to look at the US Dollar as truly breaking down. Lastly, right now you could see the 100-DMA aligns with the 50% retracement of that October-November range as well as the Weekly S1 Pivot and the lower end of that corrective pitchfork that sits all around 12,040. If these levels continue to hold, it is hard not to prefer US Dollar higher toward eventual new multi-year highs.