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  • Gold could suffer further near-term losses due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a weak technical picture for price action. Get your weekly gold forecast from @DColmanFX here:
  • Gold has been trending lower after failing to clear resistance in the $1835 area earlier this month. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DColmanFX here:
  • Key break here in the 10-year #Treasury yield as it rises to the highest since late June Took out 1.4230 resistance, and the 100-day SMA Eyes now on the 38.2% Fib extension at 1.4775 Also potential falling resistance from March
  • The move in rates after this week’s FOMC has continued and the 10 year yield has pushed up to a fresh two-month-high. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • S&P 500 contending with its proverbial ‘line in the sand’ as bulls and bears battle for directional control. How we close/trade around the 50-day moving average could serve as a noteworthy bellwether for risk trends headed into next week. I remain cautious below ~4,480. $SPX $ES
  • USD/JPY trades to a fresh monthly (110.57) amid the pickup in longer-dated US Treasury yields, and the exchange rate may stage a larger advance over the coming days. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • US yields continue to climb, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading above 1.45% $ZN $ZB
  • $USDJPY bull thesis appears quite constructive. Technicals show topside breakout above trend resistance following a period of consolidation. Bond yields providing the fundamental catalyst. Eyes on Aug/YTD highs. A broad-based deterioration in market sentiment poses downside risk.
  • WTI posting another session of strong gains, currently flirting with the 74 handle $CL #Oil #OOTT
  • The New Zealand Dollar’s bullish breakout attempt in early-September was rebuffed. Price action at the end of the month is telling a different story. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
FTSE 100 Technical Outlook – Working Towards March Retest (or Worse)

FTSE 100 Technical Outlook – Working Towards March Retest (or Worse)

Paul Robinson, Strategist

FTSE Technical Highlights:

  • FTSE broke wedge, now testing bottom of multi-month channel
  • Break of lower parallel anticipated to lead to acceleration lower
  • Looking a new low coming soon, possible channel breakdown

The FTSE 100 grind lower may soon come to an end as the trend could begin to accelerate. There was a series of lows around 5780 that forged a wedge, that has been broken. This has the bottom-side of channel dating back to early June in play.

It has been a stubborn structure, or robust, however you want to describe the ongoing channel, and that is why a breach outside would likely see price gain momentum. In this case, bringing the March lows near 4900 into play, or worse.

A move towards the March lows would have a trend-line (on a log scale weekly chart) in play from the late-80s. This is where the coronavirus low was found, but with it upward sloping it is now about 300 points higher (~5200).

Perhaps a higher-low is created at the trend-line, or we get a full retest and maybe break of the March low. Hard to say at this juncture, we’ll need to see what is transpiring should the FTSE move to that point.

First, though, the underside parallel of the multi-month channel needs to be broken convincingly, as it has flirted with doing so but has yet to close beneath. For as long as it holds the outlook is still neutral to bearish, but difficult to justify an aggressive bearish bias. Longs don’t hold much appeal at this juncture outside of maybe some quick flips as price could still rebound off declining support.

FTSE Daily Chart (testing bottom of channel hard)

FTSE daily chart

FTSE Weekly Log Chart (long-term trend-line, march lows)

FTSE weekly log chart

UK 100 Index Charts by Tradingview

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.