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FTSE 100: Continues to Maintain a Bid, Top-side Levels in Focus

FTSE 100: Continues to Maintain a Bid, Top-side Levels in Focus

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • FTSE 100 holding up well despite shove lower from resistance last week
  • Daily support and resistance levels outlined.
  • FTSE 100 and the British pound trade inversely

On Thursday of last week when we examined the price behavior of the FTSE 100, we noted the bearish daily bar off resistance extending back to August. It was a nice ‘pin’ bar reversal day, but the subsequent day the FTSE dropped down into the peak created on July 4 and reversed higher. It was our first area of support the market needed to undermine for the reversal day to be validated. So far that has not been the case, and to the contrary the FTSE is pushing back towards resistance once again. The Index could move into a range-bound period as it often does following strong moves, but the trend is higher until it isn’t. We will need to see another strong turn lower before we can consider becoming bearish.

Upside and down-side levels to be mindful of: Resistance comes in at the Thursday high of 6744. Beyond there, a couple of more peaks created last summer will come into focus should the market continue its post-Brexit rally; the July peak at 6813 and then the June high at 6874. Support comes in by way of the Friday low at 6610, and then nothing ready visible until the market moves back into the one-year resistance zone turned support in the 6400s.

FTSE 100: Continues to Maintain a Bid, Top-side Levels in Focus

Worth noting: Given the BoE’s ‘ready to take action’ stance the pound remains heavy as rates may soon be reduced to a record low 0.25% (August?) and perhaps other stimulus measures if the UK central bank feels it’s necessary. The FTSE 100 consists largely of international companies, so a weaker pound provides a boost to corporate profits. Prior to the EU referendum the one-year correlation between the FTSE 100 and GBPUSD was +61%, since the vote it has it moved to -50%. A relationship worth keeping tabs on, even if just from a risk management standpoint should one consider holding simultaneous positions in the FTSE 100 and GBP-related pairs.

Follow trader positioning in real-time with the ‘Speculative Sentiment Index’.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX.

He can be reached by email at instructor@dailyfx.com with any questions or comments.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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