We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: -0.31% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.43% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.48% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.00% 🇬🇧GBP: -1.03% 🇦🇺AUD: -1.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ST3oKR8Kyt
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.81% Gold: 0.37% Silver: -0.36% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/tCzfLiJU9V
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.35%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 67.31%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/gifjQE3Pk8
  • Germany affirmed 'AAA/A-1+', outlook stable by S&P - BBG
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.09% US 500: -0.02% Wall Street: -0.02% France 40: -0.25% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/7j8XbhvJFw
  • Trump: - Energy Secretary should look for other places to store oil - BBG
  • $GBPUSD finds resistance after crossing back below 1.2300 this morning https://t.co/QukmSLfko3
  • My portfolio is now up %600 https://t.co/Tb4Hz3zAyS
  • Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Coils After Loonie Breakdown https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2020/04/03/Canadian-Dollar-Price-Outlook-USD-CAD-Coils-Loonie-Digests-JS-US-to-Canadian-Dollar-Forecast.html https://t.co/4Yix4ZEXeH
  • President Trump says he is looking at infrastructure package, "will do it soon" Surely a key theme to watch in the week ahead for $SPX
FTSE 100: The Market Cast Its Vote, Will It Be Right?

FTSE 100: The Market Cast Its Vote, Will It Be Right?

2016-06-22 07:58:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist
Share:

What's inside:

  • FTSE rallies strongly ahead of vote
  • The market has effectively made up its mind with a strong surge in stocks and sterling taking hold
  • Skews risk to the down-side

From the Thursday low under 5900 to yesterday’s high, the FTSE 100 rocketed over 6%, making for quite a turn of events from last week when the index fell sharply and looked poised to continue lower out of an H&S formation. GBPUSD rallied nearly 8 big figures in less than four days to reach its highest levels since day one of 2016. Big moves.

Obviously, the swing from “Brexit” to “Bremain” has been the catalyst. Uncertainty is why we have been bashful lately about trading markets directly impacted by the upcoming vote; even going so far as to abandon our trustworthy charts in favor of the sidelines. Under “normal” circumstances it seems the FTSE would have at the least struggled to break back above the 6050/80 region during this current leg up, but that area of strong support turned strong resistance proved to be insignificant as the drama continues to work towards a climax. For what it's worth, it did find resistance at the trend-line off the 4/20 high yesterday into today.

At this juncture in the game, with only a day to go before voting begins and two days before we know the outcome, establishing a position in either direction is filled with significant risk; risk we are not inclined to take, but one which has been taken by the market, collectively.

From Monday’s commentary:

“What will happen? Obviously, that depends on whether the UK will stay or go. The risk appears skewed to the down-side at this time, with a bigger drop anticipated on a ‘leave’ vote than a large rise on a ‘stay’ vote. It wouldn’t be unsurprising to see a 5% decline, but it would be surprising to see investors react so happily to snatch up stocks to the tune of 5%. Generally, fear breeds larger moves than does euphoria…”

To add to that: The positioning of the market will also matter and then the subsequent outcome. For example, if the FTSE were to continue the recent strength or maintain a solid bid into the vote ('Bremain' confidence rising), then a ‘stay’ outcome would likely have less impact than a ‘leave’ simply because the market has effectively priced the former in, no real element of surprise.”

The market has cast its vote, will it be right? Risk is skewed assymetrically to the down-side.

FTSE Daily

FTSE 100: The Market Cast Its Vote, Will It Be Right?

Start finding out which trading mistakes you can start correcting today with our free guide, “Traits of Successful Traders.”

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.