FTSE 100: Could Today’s NFP Report End The Stalemate?

2016-04-01 07:23:00 Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst

Talking Points

The FTSE 100 adjusts lower to meet the declines seen overnight in the Asian stock markets.
The Nikkei 225 was dealt a blow as the Tankan survey failed to meet expectations.
U.S. NFP and ISM are on deck and could lift volatility to very high levels.

The FTSE 100 (FXCM: UK100) is lower by 0.42% at the time of writing and the decline appears to be an adjustment to soft overnight trading in the Asian stock markets. The Nikkei 225 was dealt the biggest blow and it closed lower by 3.55% for the day following the Tankan report and its failing to meet economists’ expectations.

In other news, China Manufacturing PMI for March rose to 50.2 vs. the 49.4 expected. Non-manufacturing PMI for March was 53.8 from 52.7 in February, while independent Caixin China PMI Mfg. printed 49.7 vs. the 48.3 expected (Bloomberg news survey).

The March 10 low of 6006 is acting as a support for the FTSE 100 and it’s followed by the February 24 low of 5843. The March 18 high of 6237 is the nearest resistance level of importance followed by the December 29 high of 6322.

This afternoon could see FTSE 100 volatility eclipse most of the last few sessions as the U.S. labor market report (NFP) and U.S. ISM Manufacturing report are published.

Economists in a Bloomberg survey have projected that 205 000 new jobs were added to the economy along with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.9%. Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) are expected to rise by 2.2% YoY.

The NFP outcome has the potential to drive volatility to very high levels and could set the tone of markets for days to come. Volume and price action tend therefore to be muted ahead of the report, given the cost of potentially being on the wrong side of the market.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing is also on deck and in the spotlight as over the last year the U.S. manufacturing sector has been in a dire state. The sector was one of the first to be mentioned as a trouble spot in the U.S. economy by the Fed’s Janet Yellen in her speech ‘The Outlook, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy,’ which was published earlier this week.

To ease concerns about manufacturing, the ISM would need to move above the 50 threshold, which would indicate growth in the sector. Economists in a Bloomberg survey expect the ISM to rise to 50.7 from 49.5.

More indicators are on tap today but the main ones are NFP and ISM. For the rest please see our economic calendar.

What are our top trading opportunities in 2016? Download our report for free.

FTSE 100 | FXCM: UK100