News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • BoJ's Kataoka: Hard to see inflation nearing 2% Will keep making utmost effort toward price target - BBG #BoJ $JPY
  • 🇨🇳 Caixin Services PMI (FEB) Actual: 51.5 Previous: 52.0 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-03
  • BoJ's Kataoka: Desirable to lower rates to strengthen easing Will add stimulus without hesitation if needed Will extend special funding program if necessary - BBG #BoJ $JPY
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: AUD/USD Eyes February High After Australian Q4 GDP Beat $AUD $USD Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/03/03/AUDUSD-Eyes-February-High-After-Australian-Q4-GDP-Beat.html
  • BOJ's Kataoka says it is appropriate to link forward guidance to a price target - BBG $USDJPY
  • The commodity-sensitive Canadian Dollar may continue outperforming its major counterparts in the coming weeks. USD/CAD, CAD/CHF, CAD/JPY and EUR/CAD key levels to watch. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/9bkVXQuP5C https://t.co/K4OaGLhNm1
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 Caixin Services PMI (FEB) due at 01:45 GMT (15min) Previous: 52.0 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-03
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 Caixin Composite PMI (FEB) due at 01:45 GMT (15min) Previous: 52.2 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-03
  • RT @FxWestwater: $USDCAD May Move Lower on #USD Weakness Despite Crude #Oil Breakdown Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/03/03/USDCAD-May-Move-Lower-on-USD-Weakness-Despite-Crude-Oil-Breakdown.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/KpSu8Db0A0
  • President Biden will give speech about economy this Friday, White House says - BBG
FTSE 100 Is Now Fairly Valued

FTSE 100 Is Now Fairly Valued

Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst

Talking Points

  • FTSE 100 gains may be tempered going forward as the FTSE 100 is trading in line with the Bloomberg Commodity index and DAX 30.
  • However, as long as it trades above yesterday’s low of 5802 we stay true to the trend and the FTSE may reach 6000.
  • Today, U.S. Industrial production will give us insights into whether U.S. economic growth picked up in 2016, while traders will likely want to see dovish FOMC minutes this evening to allow corporate earnings to pick up.

See the DailyFX Analysts' 1Q forecasts for the Dollar, Euro, Pound, Equities and Gold

The FTSE 100 has now reached the February 4 high of 5945, which also was our target on a break to the 5880 high. Today, the index has been lifted by strong gains in the Technology, Communications and Financials Sectors. The biggest of the gains seen today, adding 4 index points, is Glencore PLC, followed by Vodafone PLC which added 3.67 points to the FTSE. The biggest laggard is National Grid (-0.83 index points).

FTSE 100 Is Now Fairly Valued

The FTSE 100 is now trading in line with the Bloomberg Commodity Index which suggests it should be trading at 5948, while the FTSE’s correlation to the DAX 30 suggests it should be trading at 5860 and is therefore slightly overbought. This suggests that FTSE 100 gains will be tempered and limited going forward unless its drivers are seen again, something I do not expect to occur at this time given that the Bloomberg Commodity Index is trading sideways and the DAX 30 is remaining long term bearish below 9934.

Staying True To The Bullish Trend

However, price momentum is strong and as long as the FTSE 100 trades above yesterday’s low of 5802, we may reach the psychological level of 6000. Traders will most likely use a pullback to the 5880 level as an opportunity to add to their bullish exposure, while a break to yesterday’s low of 5802 may trigger a trend reversal and a decline to the 5700 level.

Insights into U.S. First Quarter GDP, FOMC Minutes

Today, U.S. Industrial Production for January is on tap and will help the market gauge if the economy is picking up or not. A Bloomberg News Poll projects a rise of 0.4% MoM, from negative 0.4% in December. A stronger than expected reading will probably keep the FTSE 100 trend intact, while a soft reading will probably dent the uptrend long enough to trigger a full-blown reversal tomorrow morning.

Later on in the evening the Federal Reserve releases its FOMC minutes from January’s meeting. Traders would ideally like to see hints of no further rates hikes in 2016 to allow corporate earnings to gain. If not, then the FTSE 100 may resume its overall bearish trend.

FTSE 100 | FXCM: UK100

Please add a description for the image.

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano

--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00

Struggling with Trading? Join a London Seminar

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES