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FTSE 100 Slides on Commodity Firms

FTSE 100 Slides on Commodity Firms

2016-01-15 10:18:00
Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst
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Talking Points

  • The FTSE 100 is lower this morning led by the likes of Anglo American and BHP Billiton being soft
  • The Bloomberg Commodity index and Chinese stock market index, the CSI 300, just recorded new yearly lows
  • We will wait for the FTSE 100 to break this week’s range of 5828-6012, and price is trading sideways since Thursday of last week
  • The economic data docket is big today; we look forward to U.S Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Michigan Consumer Confidence.

Losing Money Trading? This Might Be Why

The FTSE 100 (FXCM: UK100) slides this morning by 1% and is now approximately in the middle of this week’s range of 5828 to 6012. The decline is led by the basic materials sector (-1.35%); firms like Antofagasta, Glencore, Rio Tinto, Anglo American, and BHP Billiton are all down a significant amount. The decline in this sector is led by commodity prices once again trading lower. Crude oil as an example is now trading at $30.06 which is at this week’s low. Copper prices are also lower, but not near to breaking this week’s low. We also note that the Chinese stock market index, the CSI 300, has created a new yearly low.

FTSE 100 levels to focus on in today’s session are this week’s low of 5828 and this week’s high of 6012. With the price stuck in this range since Thursday last week, it is hard to know what will happen in the short-term, but we know traders have been selling near the upper end of the range, and buying near the lower limit. We can use this in various ways, but my preferred is to wait for a breakout to this range. A break to the upper limit may trigger a rally to the January 5 high of 6164, while a break to this week’s low of 5828 may take the FTSE 100 to the August 2015 low of 5768.

The long-term bearish traders will probably short-sell near the upper limit with a stop just above it, but instead of booking profits at the lower end of the range, the bearish traders keep the position as they anticipate a break of the lower limit. The bullish trader will, on the other hand, stay out of the market until the upper limit breaks, as the negative momentum and sentiment is greatest at this stage.

The economic data docket is big today; we look forward to U.S Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and Michigan Consumer Confidence. We also watch U.S. PPI and Empire Manufacturing PMI for January. See our economic calendar.

FTSE 100 | FXCM: UK100

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Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano

--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00

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