We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The price of #gold plunged 1% immediately after the stunning US jobs report crossed the wires. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/8i0L6YIqjy https://t.co/y9dIXazJf9
  • S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq explode higher with stocks surging in response to shockingly better-than-expected monthly jobs data. Get your #equities market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/nuMVWOzzuC https://t.co/M3nGBjd7kZ
  • The record-breaking NFPs increase behind us and the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday sets the tone for my trading video: 'Dow Soars Above 200-Day Average on NFPs, Will the #Fed Keep the Dollar Sliding' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/06/06/Dow-Soars-Above-200-Day-Average-on-NFPs-Will-the-Fed-Keep-the-Dollar-Sliding.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/kquvec5HVc
  • Seasonal factors, oversupply issues and the outbreak of COVID-19 has seen the price of liquefied #naturalgas (LNG) fall to 22-year lows (1.519), with the situation exacerbated by ‘fuller-than-normal’ storage facilities. Get your market update here:https://t.co/VOqfkBQ4aR https://t.co/OsaphmqEmu
  • Are recent gains in the Indian Rupee and Nifty 50 warranted? Risks are brewing in the background, leaving USD/INR in a consolidative setting as the Nifty pressures resistance. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/svDaSdprvN https://t.co/kgddX1ZHe4
  • I approve of this dry humor. https://t.co/b42GmIZDlL
  • The US Dollar may be at risk to losses against some of its #ASEAN counterparts. USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR and USD/IDR have recently broken to the downside. Will losses continue? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/0RTlj6maTT https://t.co/59cdbPc4l7
  • The #Nikkei 225 trades at 4-month highs after a 50% surge from the March low, while the RSI registers its first overbought readings since November 2019. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/pOEt698Ooi https://t.co/EHD2EHmQLW
  • The British Pound technical outlook still seems to favor the downside. GBP/CAD may pressure key rising support from August as GBP/AUD could prolong its downtrend. GBP/CHF may fall. Get your $GBP market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/hBOpDKXmfW https://t.co/8gGfGuw87o
  • The $USD breakdown has taken the index into confluence support at the objective yearly open. Get your USD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/A16XEv6n4d https://t.co/VFxFMFWJ5L
FTSE 100 Tests The Other Side of Its Weekly Range

FTSE 100 Tests The Other Side of Its Weekly Range

2016-01-14 09:06:00
Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst
Share:

Talking Points

  • Risk-off grips the FTSE 100 on yesterday’s slide in energy prices. There remains a high risk that the FTSE will break its weekly low of 5840

Losing Money Trading? This Might Be Why

The FTSE 100 is soft and briefly traded below this week’s low of 5840. A sustained break to this level may trigger a decline to the August 2015 low of 5768. This scenario is looking fairly likely with the S&P 500 sliding below its weekly level yesterday evening, and the German DAX 30 also near to breaking its weekly low. For the bearish pressure to end, the FTSE 100 needs to break this week’s high of 6011, and at this point bullish traders would be back in control.

The trigger behind the latest round of selling was a slide in crude oil and gasoline prices. Yesterday, the weekly EIA report showed gasoline inventories increasing by 8.43m barrels vs. a Reuters forecast of 2.8m, the week before gasoline stocks increased by 10.57m barrels. We need to go back to December 2014 to see similar strong increases in inventories. This has spooked markets, which seem to treat the build in inventories as a sign of a slowing economy.

With a general risk-off sentiment underpinning trading, the FTSE 100 could easily be dragged lower, however, our fair value models suggest that it will be choppy, as the FTSE 100 is relatively fairly valued in relation to both the DAX and Commodity prices.

Commodities and DAX 30 Suggest that the FTSE Should Be Trading Slightly Higher

Our short-term valuation model based on the last six months of the Bloomberg commodity index suggests the FTSE 100 should be 1.3% high (5970) given the developments in the commodity markets, while using the DAX as the explanatory variable suggests that the FTSE 100 should be trading 3.3% higher (6090). This suggests that the FTSE 100 is relatively fairly valued with no strong need to trade higher or lower.

Data and reports to watch today are the ECB rate minutes at 12:30 GMT (we look for clues to more QE), and U.S Jobless claims at 13:30. A Bloomberg survey projects a decline to 275K from 277k. See our economic calendar.

FTSE 100 | FXCM: UK100

Please add a description for the image.

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano

--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00

Struggling with Trading? Join a London Seminar

Get Alejandro’s daily market update in your inbox, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.