News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrLeetw https://t.co/1w7E3aiWV1
  • A “PIP” – which stands for Point in Percentage - is the unit of measure used by forex traders to define the smallest change in value between two currencies. Learn how to understand pips in forex here: https://t.co/AfAhmI7kAV https://t.co/JiZPRZzwgo
  • RT @IGSquawk: Crypto update: #Bitcoin 56398.30 -7.34% #Ether 2213.91 -7.42% #BitcoinCash 925.49 -12.24% #EOS 6.8039 -15.98% #Stellar 0.5276…
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkzWwW https://t.co/rJUm1W9wrc
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZjVIG https://t.co/oZPoyPH2iw
  • Using margin in forex trading is a new concept for many traders, and one that is often misunderstood. Margin is the minimum amount of money required to place a leveraged trade and can be a useful risk management tool. Learn about margin trading here: https://t.co/qZCE5asCzM https://t.co/yN1I9FrfIS
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/5l3O9aHQbL https://t.co/DFEfCIl7zF
  • Thin liquidity can concentrate volatility and nowhere is that more evident than with Dogecoin. $DOGEUSD was down as much as 38% today. Watch for heightened bouts of volatility amid quiet risk trends in the week ahead: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/04/17/Dollar-Outlook-Ties-Into-Key-Data-Rate-Forecasts-and-Even-Dogecoins-Rally-.html https://t.co/JO7O7zUKe9
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZjVIG https://t.co/Vv3jZNbLWg
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkzWwW https://t.co/9j004hyzUZ
FTSE 100: Further Losses Possible on Soft Commodities

FTSE 100: Further Losses Possible on Soft Commodities

Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst

Talking Points

  • Commodity markets explain most of the FTSE 100 losses of the last few weeks
  • FTSE 100 is bearish below 6172 and the expected trading range is between 6172 and 5861
  • A further slide in commodities prices are probably needed to trigger a break to last week’s low of 5861

With commodity prices sliding it is not surprising to see the FTSE 100 trading at current levels. The overall trend is bearish below last week’s high of 6172, and as long as this high is respected I assume that the FTSE 100 will try to reach 6000 (and it might even reach last week’s low of 5861).

A break to 5861 may trigger a slide to the August low of 5763. However, a further slide in commodity prices is probably needed for a break to the 5861 low. Something that is not unlikely given the current trend of the USD Dollar.

Most traders are correct about the market direction. Yet, they still don’t generate positive returns. This Traits of Successful Traders Guide explains why this is the case

Commodities Weigh Heavy

Over the last month the total-median-return for shares in the Basic Materials Sector is negative 13%, followed by the Gas and Oil Sector (which is down by 11%). The losses in these two sectors dwarf other sectors, as an example the third weakest sector is Telecoms which is down by roughly 4%. This highlights that it’s primarily the commodity markets which is driving FTSE 100 losses.

FTSE 100 Fair Value

Using the Bloomberg Commodity index and regression analysis spanning the last 6 month, the analysis suggests the FTSE 100 should be trading near 6050. This means that the FTSE 100 is reasonably valued at current levels (6090) and a further slide in commodities are probably needed to trigger more FTSE 100 losses.

This is by itself probably likely, as I expect the Dollar to gain further in the months ahead which should weigh on commodities.

One alternative scenario is that the markets shrug off the risk aversion instilled by the first Fed rate hike and we see a Christmas rally. This may boost the non-commodity related sectors of the FTSE 100. However, this is not my main scenario at this time given that the S&P 500 is not at attractive levels for long positions and the DAX 30 is choppy.

Get ahead in 2016 – Read The Traits of Successful Traders Guide

Please add a description for the image.

Created with Marketscope/Trading Station II; prepared by Alejandro Zambrano

--- Written by Alejandro Zambrano, Market Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Alejandro on Twitter: @AlexFX00

Learn more about trading and join a London Seminar

To be added to Alejandro’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES