S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis: Looking Lower Still
U.S. Indices Technical Highlights:
- S&P 500 on the verge of getting separation from March trend-line
- Nasdaq 100 below March trend-line, triggering H&S pattern
S&P 500 looking to break March trend-line
The S&P 500 flirted with a break of the March trend-line on Friday, but held on by a very marginal amount. However, with the past couple of days we are seeing the trend-line come under real pressure again with price sneaking below.
To confirm a break, I’m looking for a break below the Friday low at 3789. To really validate the break a daily close beneath the Friday candle low is ideal. This will also have the Reverse Symmetrical Triangle (RST) pattern in full-swing, a development that has been taking some time to unravel but looks poised to gain momentum.
On a confirmed break the 3694 low from late Jan will be viewed as the next targeted objective. Looking at the broader move off the March 2020 low, a more sizable correction looks to be in order.
This could very well have the rising 200-day in play at some point relatively soon; the line is at 3462 and rising. It would be a nearly 10% decline from here, but again given the magnitude of the rise in less than a year’s time, it would be reasonable to see even if it is only a bull market correction.
S&P 500 Daily Chart (flirting with March trend-line break)
The Nasdaq 100 is clearly below the March trend-line as growth tech stocks lead the way lower. A five week head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern is triggering with yesterday’s close coming just under the neckline and recent low at 12758.
The size of the pattern points to a nearly 1100 point move lower from here, which happens to line up with the current level of the 200-day MA at 11641. A minor level to watch along the way is the September high at 12439, but shouldn’t be too much of a support level given other developments.
To negate the H&S pattern break, a move above 13312 (right shoulder peak) will need to develop. For now, continuing to roll with a bearish outlook.
Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart (H&S pattern)
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.