News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to most of its major counterparts, with AUD/USD and AUD/JPY resuming losses. Did AUD/NZD bottom? AUD/CAD may consolidate. Get your weekly Australian Dollar forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/sjh91mjtXs https://t.co/dGT067zKnH
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/VLZQhrQTAf
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/j5xDAG6LLb
  • While the meetings of central bankers in the US, Japan and the UK will be front, left and center of traders’ minds this coming week, it would be wise not to ignore next Sunday’s German Federal Election. Get your euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/m920Uvmngm https://t.co/yQYtfHf66s
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/G58J1dg6y3 https://t.co/Dqq9S9vGvo
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/lccPTTlvj0
  • GBP/USD’s consolidation could end soon if price breaks out of a symmetrical triangle in play since July. At this time, a downside breakout is likely following the appearance of a death cross. Get your weekly $GBP forecast from @DColmanFX here: https://t.co/WIKdSesfkJ https://t.co/Fx0qr32xgI
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/IRS9MaA7h8
  • The Federal Reserve rate decision is likely to sway the near-term outlook for the price of gold as the central bank appears to be on track to scale back monetary support. Get your weekly gold forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/CHF/2021/09/18/Gold-Price-Outlook-Hinges-on-Fed-Rate-Decision-Forward-Guidance.html https://t.co/dWWxtErjK0
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/arxYmtQeUn https://t.co/4qxwiJsV1K
S&P 500 in Corona-gap, Dow Jones Lagging; Can Nasdaq Continue to Lead?

S&P 500 in Corona-gap, Dow Jones Lagging; Can Nasdaq Continue to Lead?

Paul Robinson, Strategist

U.S. Indices Highlights:

  • S&P 500 in corona-gap, fill with new highs could come soon
  • Dow Jones still has some work to do to get to the gap
  • Nasdaq 100 keeps on creating new records, sustainable?

The S&P 500 started the week by breaking out above the June high, and is currently in the massive gap-down from February 24 that kicked off the coronavirus meltdown in Q1. To fill the gap the S&P will need to rally up to 3337, where from there it will be just shy of the record high at 3393.

It could come quickly or it could come slowly or not at all, but as long as the trend structure in the near-term remains positive then so does the trading bias. At this juncture it would require a sharp downdraft followed by the inability to recover before considering flipping the script.

Thus far declines of forceful nature have been very short-lived, measured in days at most and in a couple of instances lasting only a single day (June 11, for instance). Which is why it will take some turning of the tide to get the edge in favor of shorts as a general trading bias.

That tune may change as the summer progresses, when seasonality may align with a vulnerable market that will have plenty of reasons to sell off (coronavirus, China-US tensions, US elections, etc.)…

S&P 500 Daily Chart (in corona-gap)

S&P 500 daily chart

S&P 500 Chart by TradingView

The Dow Jones is lagging behind as it isn’t home to all the big market darlings (FANMAG + Tesla), and so it suffers to rally with as much force as the S&P 500, and especially the Nasdaq 100 which is run by only a handful of stocks. The Dow has yet to overcome the June high at 27580, so that is first up as resistance, then the corona-gap in the 28Ks can be tackled.

There is some nice trend-line support rising up from a swing-low in April that has several inflection points. This will be first up along with the 200-day as an area of support on weakness. The area around the 200-day held good as resistance, so it anticipated to hold as support for now (~26200/300). But keep in mind if the market does start to roll over, given the relative weakness to other indices, the Dow could be a leader on the downside.

Dow Jones Daily Chart (>200-day, June high next)

Dow Jones daily chart

Dow Jones Chart by TradingView

The Nasdaq 100 is close to a new record high, which has been the case for nearly two months on a consistent basis. Roughly half the index is made up of only six stocks (FB, APPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, TSLA), which makes it a pretty top-heavy index. For now as long as these momentum stocks keep dong their thing then so will the NDX, but slip up and that will change. Earnings the next couple of weeks could prove pivotal if there is a common theme amongst these stocks as they report.

The 100 is currently sitting outside of the bull channel dating back to 2010. When price leaves the confines of a structure of this nature things can turn violent as orderly gives way to disorderly. At some point the rally will let up, but for now the trend remains our friend. A break back inside the long-term channel will make the recent leg of the rally an ‘overthrow’ and act as a signal that a broader decline may be ready to get underway. For this to happen we would need to see the NDX trade below roughly 10150.

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart (holding strong still)

Nasdaq 100 daily chart

Nasdaq 100 Chart by TradingView

Nasdaq 100 Weekly Chart (outside bull channel)

Nasdaq 100 weekly chart

Nasdaq 100 Chart by TradingView

Resources for Forex Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES