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Dow Jones Outlook – Historical Extreme Suggests Big Bounce Nearing

Dow Jones Outlook – Historical Extreme Suggests Big Bounce Nearing

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Dow Jones, S&P 500 Highlights:

  • Dow Jones, S&P 500 register historically large 5-day routs
  • A bounce appears to be near in terms of time
  • The bounce is likely to be violent even if short-lived

Dow Jones, S&P 500 register historically large 5-day routs

Obviously, the downdraft in stocks isn’t your run-of-the-mill correction, and even though it is being driven by a very real threat (coronavirus) to the global economy that could take the market down much further, there will almost certainly be oversold rallies along the way, perhaps very large ones.

The 5-day rate of change for the Dow Jones and S&P 500 is over -8%, just a bit deeper than a five-day span during the late 2018 decline, and just shy of the rout in February of that same year. There was the decline in 2015 that was over 10%, and before then you have another handful of occasions going back to the 1990s. While some of those instances were double-digit percentage declines, once we got to around the 8-10% threshold, the time leading up to a low of some sort was measured in days.

So yes, things could get a bit worse before better in the near-term; however, risk/reward is quickly skewing towards a strong bounce developing soon. Watch for a sharp intra-day reversal to the upside to set the tone for a bounce. How hard the bounce could be is anyone’s guess. The template I am working with now is, short-term low soon, bounce, then perhaps roll over again once the rally has run its course.

The S&P 500 cash index is currently sitting on a trend-line from the December 2018 low, with the 200-day and summer highs in near confluence around 3045. Also running very nearby is a slope from June 2019. This makes for a support zone of 3045/3000 to watch.

The Dow Jones is sitting on the 200-day and June 2019 slope, a break through there might not extend to this point, but the next level of price support is near the 25,700/300-area.

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Dow Jones Daily Chart (oversold, support levels to watch)

Dow Jones daily chart

Dow Jones Chart by TradingView

S&P 500 Daily Chart (cluster of support near)

S&P 500 daily chart

***Updates will be provided on the above thoughts and others in the trading/technical outlook webinars held at 1030 GMT on Tuesday and Friday. If you are looking for ideas and feedback on how to improve your overall approach to trading, join me on Thursday each week for the Becoming a Better Trader webinar series.

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.