US Indices Technical Outlook:
- S&P 500 above Jan ’18 trend-line in record territory
- Dow up against the Jan ’18 t-line, difficult spot
- Nasdaq 100 up against a potential wedge line
See where our analysts see the stock market heading in the Q4 Equity Market Forecast.
S&P 500 above Jan ’18 trend-line in record territory
The S&P 500 is trading in record territory, but what is maybe more important is that it has also climbed above the top-side trend-line from January 2018, the same threshold the market stopped at in July before correcting. It’s a tough spot though to be a fresh buyer despite no resistance to contend with.
Stocks are not all that kind to those who pay up, but have been even unfriendlier to those trying to pick a top. From a tactical standpoint this makes things difficult unless you are long from comfortably lower levels, where at this point you perhaps tighten up trailing stops and see if the trend can continue as it has.
The key for would-be shorts will be gauging price action for signs of real selling coming in that could result in a tradable pullback. In the absence of a knifing move lower, 3100 might be the next stop for the SPX. A consolidation pattern may present an opportunity for new longs to get a clean look with decent risk/reward.
S&P 500 Daily Chart (extended above Jan ’18 t-line)
Dow up against the Jan ’18 t-line, difficult spot
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up and out of a partially developed wedge, now in a showdown with the same January 2018 trend-line that the S&P 500 has already climbed above. Perhaps it will stop there, but as already stated, betting against the market in the absence of bearish price action doesn’t hold a lot of appeal from where I sit. Buying is only slightly more appealing at these levels. Sometimes you have to just take to the sidelines and wait for a better look, this looks like one of those times.
Dow Jones Daily Chart (Jan ’18 t-line in the way)
Dow Jones Chart by TradingView
Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how retail traders are positioned and what it could potentially mean for various currencies and markets moving forward.
Nasdaq 100 up against a potential wedge line
The Nasdaq 100 is of course in a similar situation, extended but not trading around as formidable of a trend-line as the S&P and Dow. There is a line running over current levels that could be of interest later if a rising wedge comes to fruition. But as it stands now, that is only a scenario that requires a lot of work before it comes to be reality.
A congestion pattern could do some good here (same goes for the other indices) for those looking for a follow-through long. Either that or a sharp reversal with momentum for potential shorts. Otherwise, risk/reward not viewed as too favorable either way here.
Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart (top-side t-lines)
Nasdaq 100 Chart by TradingView
To learn more about U.S. indices, check out “The Difference between Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500: Major Facts & Opportunities.” You can join me every Wednesday at 1030 GMT for live analysis on equity indices and commodities, and for the remaining roster of live events, check out the webinar calendar.
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
