News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇮🇹 Government Budget (2020) Actual: -9.5% Previous: -1.6%
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • 🇮🇹 Full Year GDP Growth (2020) Actual: -8.9% Previous: 0.3%
  • Indices Update: As of 11:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 1.88% France 40: 1.65% Germany 30: 1.32% US 500: 1.21% Wall Street: 1.10% View the performance of all markets via
  • Heads Up:🇮🇹 Full Year GDP Growth (2020) due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 0.3%
  • Heads Up:🇮🇹 Government Budget (2020) due at 11:00 GMT (15min) Previous: -1.6%
  • Fed's Barkin says would be disappointed if we didn't see bond yields rise as the outlook improves - WSJ
  • What are some factors affecting the USD this quarter? Get your free forecast here: #DailyFXGuides
  • 🇮🇹 Inflation Rate YoY Prel (FEB) Actual: 0.6% Previous: 0.4%
  • Thanks as always @JeremyNaylor_IG
Dow Jones Technical Forecast: DJIA May Grasp at Record Highs

Dow Jones Technical Forecast: DJIA May Grasp at Record Highs

Peter Hanks, Strategist

Dow Jones Technical Forecast

  • Alongside the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, the Dow Jones finds itself within reach of all-time highs
  • The upcoming week is filled with fundamental events that possess significant potential to spur a break
  • Learn key tips and tricks to Day-Trading the Dow Jones

Dow Jones Technical Forecast: DJIA May Grasp at Record Highs

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded slightly higher on Wednesday as traders await Thursday’s European Central Bank decision. The rate decision is widely expected to deliver a dovish framework for the coming months which could in turn, boost the DJIA further. Similarly, next Wednesday’s Fed meeting is also expected to offer an appetizing monetary policy outlook which has likely been a critical portion of the Dow’s performance in the year-to-date. With the fundamental expectations locked in, it is now up to the delivery of the events and technical levels to influence the follow-through of the various Indices.

Dow Jones Price Chart: 4 - Hour Time Frame (June – September) (Chart 1)

dow jones forecast price chart

That said, the DJIA trades in proximity to levels that possess major technical merit. To the topside, all-time highs around 27,400 and an ascending trendline marked by the highs from January 2018 and October 2018 slightly prior, will look to offer staunch resistance. If market expectations are fulfilled, bullishness could take hold and drive the Dow to test these heights.

Dow Jones Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (January 2018 – September 2019) (Chart 2)

dow jones price chart forecast

On the other hand, a disappointing meeting from either the ECB, Fed or both, could seriously inhibit an attempted move higher. In turn, the Dow Jones could threaten a breakdown back into the August range and potentially threaten the ascending trendline from February 2018. The line has influenced price throughout the last 20 months and helped to create the lower-bound of the recent range around 25,200. Apart from the February trendline, the area also marks a zone of confluence for various other technical levels.

Check out the Weekly Fundamental Forecast for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, DAX 30 and FTSE 100.

Thus, if dovish expectations are not met, the area could effectively be viewed as the “line in the sand,” where – if broken – the door would open for the Index to post lower lows. In the event of such bearish price action, June lows around 24,595 could mark a secondary area of significant technical support. While the market awaits the momentous central bank meetings, price action may bleed lower or melt higher according to the latest read on the central bank’s leanings and the market’s outlook. With that in mind, retail traders remain overwhelmingly net-short the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

dow jones sentiment chart

Retail trader data shows 24.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 3.06 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since August 15 when the Dow Jones traded near 25918.0; price has moved 4.3% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 7.1% lower than Tuesday and 33.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.2% higher than Tuesday and 10.0% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests the Dow Jones may continue to melt higher into the Fed meeting next Wednesday. Traders are further net-short than Tuesday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger DJIA-bullish contrarian trading bias.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more:Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, DAX 30, FTSE 100 Forecasts for the Week

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.