News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and AUD/USD could be at risk of extending losses as retail investors increase upside exposure. What are key technical levels to watch for? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/ivQmFUTGdU https://t.co/KuIoM7g9E3
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/38gTDn8ejP https://t.co/FBT1eSZdjF
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/ERyiY47G5H https://t.co/LRL1iD3JDt
  • Even though the Australian Dollar lost some ground this week, support levels held. Bearish developments are brewing in $AUDUSD and $AUDJPY but remain unconfirmed. What else does #AUD face ahead technically? - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2020/10/24/Australian-Dollar-Technical-Forecast-AUDUSD-AUDJPY-EURAUD-GBPAUD.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/0gHyXW1vHh
  • Forex sentiment analysis can be a useful tool to help traders understand and act on price behavior. Learn how to get the most out of understanding trader sentiment here: https://t.co/LjEjTexrCg https://t.co/9qcanKW0uT
  • Third wave? We haven’t beaten the first wave. Until the virus is under control, the US economy won’t be able to properly heal, plain & simple. The lack of a competent response saps courage. Defeat the virus, then get people back to work. In that order. https://t.co/8R8IyTZejM
  • The British Pound may fall if EU and UK negotiators fail to reach a consensus as the December 31 deadline nears. The third presidential debate is on deck, how might markets react? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/kDSYzBDA3t https://t.co/80xL2Hyat7
  • The #Fed b/s hit a record high USD ~7.18T this week! Been awhile since I last did an update so here it is! I smoothened out analysis by using 4W moving averages You can see how into summer #SP500 growth 👇 as the b/s 👇 Since then it flipped until recent fiscal talk jitters https://t.co/4AESBo99dl
  • The US Dollar is losing ground against ASEAN FX, with USD/SGD and USD/IDR possibly readying to extend declines. Will USD/PHP and USD/MYR follow? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/l705RWumj5 https://t.co/wySomzNGbm
  • RT @FxWestwater: #Copper Price Forecast: US Q3 GDP and Chinese PMI in Focus - via @DailyFX https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/10/23/Copper-Price-Forecast-US-Q3-GDP-and-Chinese-PMI-in-Focus.html https://t.co/SV0GskVO…
Dow Jones Tags 200-day; Technical Outlook for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

Dow Jones Tags 200-day; Technical Outlook for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

2019-08-06 09:30:00
Paul Robinson, Strategist
Share:

U.S. Indices Technical Outlook:

  • Dow Jones from record to 200-day in one fell swoop
  • S&P 500 still has room to trade lower before hitting its 200
  • Nasdaq 100 trades to trend-line of big-picture wedge

See how the quarterly forecast has played out what it could mean for the big-picture – Q3 Equity Markets Forecast.

Dow Jones from record to 200-day in one fell swoop

The down-move in the Dow Jones has been vicious, with record highs only days ago just a stone’s throw away and now the index trading at the 200-day. To be fair, the 200 wasn’t terribly far away to begin with, but nevertheless the swoon has been swift.

In the near-term, watch for a bounce to develop as often times the 200-day at the least produces a good amount of volatility. A bounce may prove only temporary given how hard the break was and that it came right off the high and an important trend-line making up the top-side portion of a potential topping pattern in the form of a Reverse Symmetrical Triangle (RST) or Megaphone.

For now, watching how any recovery takes shape and then taking it from there. A fizzling bounce may present a continuation-style short trade, while a bounce and successful retest of a low could set up would-be longs for a larger recovery trade. Only potential scenarios for the time-being…

Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how retail traders are positioned and what it could potentially mean for various currencies and markets moving forward.

Dow Jones Daily Chart (200-day)

Dow Jones Tags 200-day; Technical Outlook for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

Dow Jones Chart by Tradingview

Dow Jones Weekly Chart (RST/Megaphone)

Dow Jones Tags 200-day; Technical Outlook for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

The S&P 500 broke the trend-line off the December low, but still has room to the 200-day MA. It resides about 55 points lower than yesterday’s close. This leaves the index without the same kind of support that the Dow has, but it also might mean that the Dow will break the 200 with the broader SPX still having room to trade lower. The reaction to the sell-off should help provide some cues on what to do next.

S&P 500 Daily Chart (200-day below)

Dow Jones Tags 200-day; Technical Outlook for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

S&P 500 Chart by Tradingview

The break in the Nasdaq 100 has it trading at the trend-line off the December 2018 low, which also makes up the bottom-side of a rising wedge pattern dating back to the second-half of last year. A break of the formation could really get the market reeling, as the NDX is home to FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google), the bull-market darlings that have been failing to lead the market as they once did.

It’s been viewed as a sign of deteriorating market health (along with the Russell 2k lagging and other breadth indicators). This break may be the beginning of confirming the recent divergences we’ve been seeing, and mark the first shot of what will turn into a theme of bearishness.

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart (t-line, bottom of larger wedge)

Dow Jones Tags 200-day; Technical Outlook for S&P 500, Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 Chart by Tradingview

To learn more about U.S. indices, check out “The Difference between Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500: Major Facts & Opportunities.” You can join me every Wednesday at 10 GMT for live analysis on equity indices and commodities, and for the remaining roster of live events, check out the webinar calendar.

Tools for Forex & CFD Traders

Whether you are a beginning or experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES